New Zealand's Latest Earthquake Could Trigger a Mega-Quake

[Quix]

From New Scientist
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14 Nov 2016
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By Alice Klein

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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2112598-new-zealands-latest-earthquake-could-trigger-a-mega-quake/
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It seems to me that this warrants another thread on its own. Folks in the region and all on the Pacific rim of fire might do well to ponder these issues . . .
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“We currently calculate a 12 per cent probability of a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake within the next day, and 32 per cent within the next 30 days,” says John Ristau at GNS Science, New Zealand’s geoscience research and consultancy firm. “An earthquake like this can increase the risk of a major earthquake nearby, although it can also decrease stress on a nearby fault and lessen the risk.”
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Preliminary data show the earthquake occurred on a previously unknown fault near the interface of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates. The South Island was thrust up over the Pacific plate with some sideways slip.
Stress change
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The stress change could trigger a powerful earthquake at the interface between the Australian and Pacific plates, known as the Alpine Fault, says Kevin McCue at Central Queensland University. The giant Alpine Fault borders the South Island and splays into many faults through the North Island, he says.
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If the 600-kilometre fault ruptures, it will produce one of the biggest earthquakes in New Zealand since European settlement, says GNS Science. It last ruptured in 1717.
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. . .

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300 aftershocks . . . half mag 4 or higher . . . strongest 6.3
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Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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It sounds like the NZ gov folks are behaving very responsibly and that they have the economics enough in order to deal with the latest as well as continuing Christchurch recovery efforts.
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However, Route 1 highway may have to be relocated--no small trick, it seems to me . . . or perhaps a very strong tunnel a major chunk of the route! No small cost to that, I'd bet. And no one has suggested anything like that, so far.
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It just seems to me . . . sounds to me like . . . NZ can "look forward" to a lot more heavy duty shaking and catastrophe. Sigh.
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At least officials are sounding committed to fixing things in a quality and preventative way in their recovery plans and constructions.
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But just how would one go about installing water, sewage and gas lines in a more or less 'quake proof' way? With lots of flexibility--loops, etc? . . . particularly across fault lines. And how well would that work with uplifts of 1-5 meters or yards?
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Or do they 'merely' install joints, connections, "Y's" on both sides of fault lines to facilitate easier re-connection?
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Or do geologists and quake experts need some better analysis tools with which to 'guesstimate' better which way what parts of the land is apt to move--in 3 dimensions? And then engineers manage structures and critical infrastructure accordingly?
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Or do they 'merely' need to stockpile tons of dried food, water and porta potties at diverse and plentiful locations?
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And what other coastal highways are likely to be thoroughly trashed by such landslides/slips in future big quakes? Would the kind of concrete roofing that are somewhat common in Colorado high mountain snow avalanche country something to consider?
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And what about those Wellington buildings--not that close to the quake but still rendered uninhabitable and dangerous. I thought building construction there was per some of the best quake ready codes around???
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Or, is it time for man's pride in being so 'self'-sufficient, to humble itself and pray earnestly to God for mercy and HIS direction?
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It is wonderful to see the NZ people come together is such mutually supportive and kind ways.

[Quix]

This link

https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Learning/Science-Topics/Earthquakes/Major-Faults-in-New-Zealand/Alpine-Fault
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Talks about the Alpine Fault that runs up the mountainous spine of the South Island in NZ.
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Horizontal movement of the Alpine Fault is about 30m per 1000 years — very fast by global standards. Each time it has ruptured, it has also moved vertically, lifting the Southern Alps in the process. In the last 12 million years the Southern Alps have been uplifted by an amazing 20 kilometres, and it is only the fast pace of erosion that has kept their highest point below 4000 metres. The glaciers and rivers have removed the rest of the material and spread it out across the lowland plains or onto the sea floor. The rapid uplift also means that faulted rock from deep down has been brought to the surface, and can be studied by scientists.
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. . .

If this latest quake results in more pressure being built-up in the Alpine fault . . . zowie . . . could certainly get interesting.

8.x is a big quake!

[Quix]

This link is about drilling into the Alpine Fault

and placing monitoring sensors deep within it . . . not done before anywhere on the planet within a fault on it's 'seismic cycle.' 

Could be very interesting data coming from such sensors over the next while.

They consider the probability of such a rupture on the Alpine fault in the next 50 years to be 28%.

It has a history of a major quake about every 300 years . . . and last erupted about 300 years ago.

They are thinking there may be a capacity to install sensors enough to put in a warning system.

There's a good video at the link.

https://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/Learning/Science-Topics/Earthquakes/Major-Faults-in-New-Zealand/Alpine-Fault/Deep-Fault-Drilling-Project

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This video is of a simulation of a mag 7.9 Alpine Fault case.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUZYpBBSFzU
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[Quix]

This simulation is for an 8.4 quake  on the North Island near the Cook Straight gap between the North and South Islands between Waipukuau and Wellington.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxFjyk449Yk

It lasts 1-2 minutes in the simulation vs Christchurch 10 seconds.

A daytime quake . . . 30 fatalities . . . $10 billion  damage . . . not counting fires, floods or Tsnunami's.

Tsunami height speculated at 5-7 meters.

The Tsunami would likely reach the coast within 7 minutes.

[Quix]

FWIW,

My quake interest is multi-fold.

1. I lived in San Diego for about 10 years and in Long Beach a couple of months.

2. I lived in Taipei 14+ years.

3. The END TIMES are clearly going to be increasingly frequented by quakes. It is plausible that the increasing intensities and frequencies of quakes MIGHT be a clue as to where we are in the END TIMES script/schedule.

4. Quakes are a great example of a hazardous, deadly, chaotic, troublesome survival situation in terms of

(A) Basic necessities
(B) Infrastructure
(C) Transportation
(D) Governmental responses and institutions
(E) NGO responses and institutions
(F) Social fabric and social network responses and behaviors pro and con.
(G) Extended family responses and behaviors typical and atypical.

4.1 THEREFORE--watching what happens in NZ with such quakes . . . as well as in Taiwan, Thailand, Banda Ache, Japan etc. . . . MAY WELL afford the keenly observant some  clues as to the somewhat likely future behaviors of various groups and clusters of individuals in a diversity of troublesome survival situations and chaos--whether such groups are formal government groups, informal groups, families, etc., or not.

5. OF COURSE, such insights will merely be inferential, coarse, generalized, imprecise, with mixed degrees of predictive reliability etc. Nevertheless, perceptive insights from real events are likely to be better than wild-arsed guesses based on nothing.

6. The human drama has long been of keen interest to me--individually and collectively as well as, certainly with families and neighborhoods.

(A) What correlates with honorable "Christian" behavior and what correlates, fosters bad, evil behavior in such situations?

(B) What correlates with good human qualities and behaviors rising to the top in otherwise not that wonderful people?

(C) What correlates with dishonorable, ugly behaviors rising to the top, surfacing in people who have long had reputations for being "nice," honorable, 'good Christian' people?

What can I say--have long been a psychologist and sociologist. These are interesting to passionate issues, foci, to me.