So Far, Trump Is Not Sinking Down-Ballot Republicans
Republican Senate and House candidates are not necessarily aligning themselves with the party’s presidential candidate.
By Michael Barone — October 28, 2016
Could a flailing Donald Trump campaign hurt down-ballot Republicans and cost the party majorities in the Senate and House? That seems possible, if he loses to Hillary Clinton by a margin similar to those in most current polls and if Americans keep on straight-ticket voting as they have increasingly in recent years.
The trend is startling. In 2012, only 4 percent of voters opted for Barack Obama and a Republican congressional candidate, and only 6 percent went for Mitt Romney and a Democrat. That 10 percent total was the lowest since the question was first asked in 1952.
Similarly, only 26 congressional districts voted for a presidential candidate of one party and a congressman of the other. That’s the lowest such number since 1920. It’s also part of a longer-term trend. Fewer districts split their tickets this way between 1992 and 2012 than in any election between 1956 and 1988.
One reason for this has been the increasing congruence between each party’s presidential and congressional candidates’ issue positions and priorities. With the virtual wipeout of moderate Blue Dog Democrats in 2010, there were few Romney-leaning Democrats or Obama-leaning Republicans running anywhere.
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http://www.nationalreview.com/node/441513/print
