I posted this last week.
Which state is most likely to put Trump over the top? I was picking New Hampshire first, but interested to see if Trump can win another poll in Colorado. For now, the Colorado poll with Trump winning is an outlier, but that may change when we get more data.
Others have said Michigan. We shall see.
He only needs one state even if that state is New Hampshire, because he's picking off 1 EV from Maine.