MSNBC's Chuck Todd: CNN Poll With Trump in Lead Has 'Weighting' Problem

[mystery-ak]

Newsmax
MSNBC's Chuck Todd: CNN Poll With Trump in Lead Has 'Weighting' Problem
Tuesday, September 6, 2016 08:02 PM

By: Cathy Burke

A new CNN poll released Tuesday showing Donald Trump with a 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton suffered from a "weighting" problem that skewed the results, according to MSNBC anchor Chuck Todd.

In a commentary on his "MTP Daily" show, Todd argued the survey "assumes a lot of things."

"It assumes an electorate that we've never seen before – whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample," he said. "In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

"So when you re-weight the actual CNN numbers to match how the electorate looked in 2012, this same poll would actually have shown Clinton up 4 points," he said.

"The point is your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be. Your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump. But it would be an historic shift if it occurred."

Republican pollster Glenn Bolger, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, added the CNN poll showed "if you look at … party identification, it's a plus-4 Republican sample. I'd love it… —if the electorate were plus-4 Republican. But it's just not. And it's not going to be on Election Day."

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/chuck-todd-cnn-poll-donald-trump/2016/09/06/id/746993/

[sinkspur]

The actual party ID is D+7.  So there are many problems with the CNN poll.

[Taxcontrol]

It comes down to the guess of what the voter mix will be.  Trump thinks that he will pull in independents but the conservatives in the GOP base are passing on voting for another liberal.  Will he get more than he lost?  Hard to tell.

My suspicion is that it will be close.  So close that it may not even have an EC winner.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

No poll is perfect, which is why you have to go with polling averages IMO.

It's historically the best, albeit imperfect, predictor of election day reality.

However, there is definite movement towards Trump. Which is not the same as saying Trump is winning. There was also movement towards Romney towards the end in 2012. He still lost.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

The actual party ID is D+7.  So there are many problems with the CNN poll.

Poll is 'likely voters". I guess CNN is maybe claiming that Dems aren't as motivated as GOPers? It's possible.