Author Topic: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat  (Read 2033 times)

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Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« on: July 09, 2016, 11:34:17 pm »
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/10/opinion/sunday/are-we-unraveling.html?ref=opinion

Are We Unraveling?

Ross Douthat JULY 9, 2016

THE center is not holding.

We are not a country in open revolution. We are not a country under enemy siege. We are the United States of America in the sticky summer of 2016, and the market is up and the unemployment rate is low and the president’s approval ratings are solid and it could have been a moment of brave hope and national resurgence, but it is not, and from the grandstands at Trump rallies to the streets of Dallas to the mad world of social media everyone knows that it is not.

The alert reader may have noted that I’m plagiarizing here: Those are the opening lines, condensed and somewhat altered, of Joan Didion’s “Slouching Toward Bethlehem,” written just as America entered the maelstrom of the later ‘60s and the ‘70s.

History rhymes rather than repeats; we are not reliving the widening gyre that Didion discerned. But there are echoes and recurrences linking this difficult moment to the American berserk of two generations back.

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Offline skeeter

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2016, 11:41:27 pm »
This "cup of crisis" will never pass from us as long as one major political party with their academic & media toads continues to fan the flames of racial/gender/class discontent for their own political gain.

Old Ross ought to chew on that for awhile.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2016, 05:48:49 am »
This "cup of crisis" will never pass from us as long as one major political party with their academic & media toads continues to fan the flames of racial/gender/class discontent for their own political gain.

Old Ross ought to chew on that for awhile.
Yep, and as long as idiot writers believe the official statistics about the economy.

Unemployment is down? From what?
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

HonestJohn

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2016, 06:29:38 am »
This "cup of crisis" will never pass from us as long as one major political party with their academic & media toads continues to fan the flames of racial/gender/class discontent for their own political gain.

Old Ross ought to chew on that for awhile.

Are you talking about the Democrats and their race hustlers like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton...

... or the Republicans with their race hustlers like Donald Trump?

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2016, 06:30:17 am »
Yep, and as long as idiot writers believe the official statistics about the economy.

Unemployment is down? From what?

From the height of the 2008 economic crisis?

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2016, 06:36:40 am »
From the height of the 2008 economic crisis?
Well, a huge number of people have dropped out of the workforce since then, and the Oil patch is somewhere between 10-15% of what it was then. My guess is that actual workforce participation is at or below those levels, but that is just a guess, and open to being corrected. Unemployment rates aren't reliable, simply because if you don't have benefits coming, you don't count.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2016, 01:27:38 pm »
and the Oil patch is somewhere between 10-15% of what it was then.

Where did you get those figures?  Are you saying that the employment in the Oil Patch is only 1/6 to 1/10 of what it was in 2008?  Seems overly pessimistic.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2016, 05:34:54 pm »
When the left succeeds in undermining morals:
"It's 2016. Get with the times."

When the left fails in doing so:
"We're falling apart as a nation."
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2016, 05:47:18 pm »
Where did you get those figures?  Are you saying that the employment in the Oil Patch is only 1/6 to 1/10 of what it was in 2008?  Seems overly pessimistic.
Obviously the member is very poorly informed, just talkin on the "conservative" internet forums.
"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2016, 08:15:39 pm »
Where did you get those figures?  Are you saying that the employment in the Oil Patch is only 1/6 to 1/10 of what it was in 2008?  Seems overly pessimistic.
COnsider two major factors: rig counts and tech changes.

Rig count here went from 218 (at the peak) to 24. Those remaining are walking rigs, and only do a complete 'tear down and reassembly' style move every 3 to 4 wells as opposed to the rigs in use in 2008, which had to be disassembled and reassembled every well. They walk, self-skid, or otherwise move from wellhead to wellhead on the drill pad now. (A three fourths reduction in rig moves means 3/4 of those jobs were gone before the price slump, and after that, the reduction in operating rigs to move was 85+%). This reduced demand for trucking in all but the liquids hauling (mostly production) part of the industry, as there were far fewer rigs to haul or to haul materials to. Consider, every drilling location directly employed 22 rig crew, 2 geologists, 2-4 company hands, 2 MWD personnel, 2 Directional drillers, 1 drilling fluids engineer, 4 solids control people. I won't count the truck drivers, safety personnel, mechanics, electricians, and other specialists who serviced more than one rig in that total, but their ranks were thinned considerably, too. Fewer drilling locations means less demand for site housing and the water/sewage services for that.

Pad drilling also cut down on the amount of earthwork versus single well per location drilling, and most of that earthwork is done on those well pads. Pipeline tie-ins are run to most of the pads.  While there is more road to maintain, remove snow from, etc., it takes far fewer people to maintain it than to build it.

Fewer surveyors are needed, fewer landmen (leases are mostly all let), and their office staffs because pipeline routes, rights of way, road easements, and drilling/production locations are all mapped out and surveyed in.   

The archaeological, raptor, and cultural material surveys have been conducted, as well as rare/endangered plant and animal surveys. Major road and highway construction projects are complete, what was a shortage of housing has been overbuilt, and now oilfield shop space (commercial) is vacant, so the crews doing everything from drywall, plumbing, electrical, roofing, etc. have packed up and left: their jobs are done.

Reductions in retail staff and hospitality staff and wages continue, and some businesses are starting to go belly up or close entirely. Larger oilfield service company shops have reduced hours, staff, and wages/benefits. Some have packed up entirely and consolidated with other offices or closed the branch. Only the production side continues to operate as it did.

Consider, too, that royalty checks have been reduced significantly, both by well aging (the first 80% BOPD production decline occurs in the first two years), and oil is bringing considerably less at the wellhead, and other sectors have felt the impact as well. (The other industry here is agriculture, and commodity price slumps in that sector mean that has failed to bolster the rest of the economy in the face of sliding oil prices and activity.)

I'd say the oil patch reduction here (with spinoffs) is likely pretty accurate.

I know that at 3AM in the nearest town, what was bumper to bumper traffic now is empty roads, and half of those vehicles are police on patrol.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2016, 02:51:47 pm »
COnsider two major factors: rig counts and tech changes.

Rig count here went from 218 (at the peak) to 24. Those remaining are walking rigs, and only do a complete 'tear down and reassembly' style move every 3 to 4 wells as opposed to the rigs in use in 2008, which had to be disassembled and reassembled every well. They walk, self-skid, or otherwise move from wellhead to wellhead on the drill pad now. (A three fourths reduction in rig moves means 3/4 of those jobs were gone before the price slump, and after that, the reduction in operating rigs to move was 85+%). This reduced demand for trucking in all but the liquids hauling (mostly production) part of the industry, as there were far fewer rigs to haul or to haul materials to. Consider, every drilling location directly employed 22 rig crew, 2 geologists, 2-4 company hands, 2 MWD personnel, 2 Directional drillers, 1 drilling fluids engineer, 4 solids control people. I won't count the truck drivers, safety personnel, mechanics, electricians, and other specialists who serviced more than one rig in that total, but their ranks were thinned considerably, too. Fewer drilling locations means less demand for site housing and the water/sewage services for that.

Pad drilling also cut down on the amount of earthwork versus single well per location drilling, and most of that earthwork is done on those well pads. Pipeline tie-ins are run to most of the pads.  While there is more road to maintain, remove snow from, etc., it takes far fewer people to maintain it than to build it.

Fewer surveyors are needed, fewer landmen (leases are mostly all let), and their office staffs because pipeline routes, rights of way, road easements, and drilling/production locations are all mapped out and surveyed in.   

The archaeological, raptor, and cultural material surveys have been conducted, as well as rare/endangered plant and animal surveys. Major road and highway construction projects are complete, what was a shortage of housing has been overbuilt, and now oilfield shop space (commercial) is vacant, so the crews doing everything from drywall, plumbing, electrical, roofing, etc. have packed up and left: their jobs are done.

Reductions in retail staff and hospitality staff and wages continue, and some businesses are starting to go belly up or close entirely. Larger oilfield service company shops have reduced hours, staff, and wages/benefits. Some have packed up entirely and consolidated with other offices or closed the branch. Only the production side continues to operate as it did.

Consider, too, that royalty checks have been reduced significantly, both by well aging (the first 80% BOPD production decline occurs in the first two years), and oil is bringing considerably less at the wellhead, and other sectors have felt the impact as well. (The other industry here is agriculture, and commodity price slumps in that sector mean that has failed to bolster the rest of the economy in the face of sliding oil prices and activity.)

I'd say the oil patch reduction here (with spinoffs) is likely pretty accurate.

I know that at 3AM in the nearest town, what was bumper to bumper traffic now is empty roads, and half of those vehicles are police on patrol.

Drilling related activities are way down and some plays may be that low( in the play near me it went in fact to zero); however, there is a lot of the oil patch which is not drilling/ completion related and is not nearly affected.  The company I retired from has cut less than 10% of its staff, as an example, and it's principle operations are in West Texas.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2016, 02:56:32 pm »
Obviously the member is very poorly informed, just talkin on the "conservative" internet forums.

No, he is in fact well informed, and was most likely speaking on certain aspects of the industry.

PS - he is moderator of the Energy Issues sub-thread

@Smokin Joe
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington

Offline The Jackal

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2016, 03:04:41 pm »
I welcome our unraveling. Any society that kills its own children doesn't deserve to survive.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2016, 04:17:49 pm »
Obviously the member is very poorly informed, just talkin on the "conservative" internet forums.
Obviously, the oil patch here, (drilling and completion, but not corporate head offices) is different from your experience (you do have experience, right?). I have only been a geologist in the patch for 37 years, so maybe I don't know shit, but I have been in on the Bakken boom since 2000, and have worked in seven states in the rockies on drill sites.

Where there are corporate offices, especially major regional or head offices, the numbers don't look so bad. Sorry, but I was counting the guys who actually get mud on their work boots and have to wear NFPA 2112 outerwear to work (OSHA reg.). This is my second oil boom, and I live in NW North Dakota. Next time you spew about me, kindly have the courtesy to let me know about it so I can address your misconceptions.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2016, 04:21:43 pm »
Drilling related activities are way down and some plays may be that low( in the play near me it went in fact to zero); however, there is a lot of the oil patch which is not drilling/ completion related and is not nearly affected.  The company I retired from has cut less than 10% of its staff, as an example, and it's principle operations are in West Texas.
Perhaps I should have been more specific. That's how things are looking in the Williston Basin at the moment. Other plays may be getting more activity, and depending on who you include in the upstream end, the numbers may come out different. I was only including field personnel, not office folks, as it seems when the cuts come the guy with the mud on his boots is the first to go.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline INVAR

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2016, 04:47:46 pm »
I welcome our unraveling. Any society that kills its own children doesn't deserve to survive.

And believe the Word of the Lord that it will not.
Fart for freedom, fart for liberty and fart proudly.  - Benjamin Franklin

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Re: Are We Unraveling?.... Ross Douthat
« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2016, 07:06:01 pm »
I was only including field personnel, not office folks, as it seems when the cuts come the guy with the mud on his boots is the first to go.

It may seem sometimes on the drilling side, but overall the true overhead in the office is actually the low handing fruit when it comes to cutting staff.  Had to go through it myself at one time.

Sometimes, yes, outsourcing can cause disruptions to the field personnel, but the actual job generally remains and replaced by 3rd party workers.  No substitute for keeping the field operating.
No punishment, in my opinion, is too great, for the man who can build his greatness upon his country's ruin~  George Washington