http://www.fairvote.org/primary_focus_report_highlights_republicans_gain_democrats_drop_in_2016_turnoutAt FairVote, we have closely followed this year’s contests. We published blogs on second choice polling using Public Policy Polling (PPP) data of likely Republican voters. The data shed light on the potential impact of using ranked choice ballots in primary contests. Additionally, we have maintained a blog series to highlight FairVote reforms. “Primary Focus” delved into various topics, including seventeen year-old primary voting, meaningful access to early voting, and campaign civility. FairVote will continue our engagement in 2016 primary analysis by releasing a detailed report on turnout trends in 2016 compared to 2008, using both our own data and data from Michael P. McDonald's Election Project. The following blog presents highlights and summaries of this report in preview to its release.
The complete report will analyze in greater detail the differences in turnout between open and closed primary states, states that have made changes to voter access laws, and differences in turnout between 2016 and 2008. The report draws upon the data in our Popular Vote Totals 2016 spreadsheet which tracks voter turnout, “wasted” votes cast for withdrawn candidates, and each candidate’s share of the total voting population. We have also created an additional spreadsheet to compare turnout in 2008 to 2016 and serve as the foundation for the comparative research in this report.
The report analyzes data from the 29 states that have, as of June 1st, held both Republican and Democratic primaries in the 2008 and 2016 nomination seasons. Key findings and higlights include:
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