Your statements would hold some degree of water were this election standard rules of operation....it isn't.... nor does it look like the general will be either. Certainly stranger things have happened throughout such as the last man standing of our candidates was the least fit for the office............but here we are with many seriously looking for another option other than Trump or Hillary.....especially since Hilary isn't an option.
The problem is that while there are indeed "many" looking for an option other than Trump, there are still a whole lot of people very excited about Trump (that's why he won the primary), and another group willing to support him as a superior alternative to Hillary. So what French would have to do is cobble together a plurality in some state of "Never Trump". Are there any polls showing a state in which "NeverTrump" is the #1 choice?
Utah is the one state that is offered as the most likely, but how likely is it, really? All the Trump voter come right off the top, as well as Hillary's. Is a plurality of that state truly "NeverTrump"? I'd be really surprised. But if it is...what then? Utah isn't Democrat state anyway, so that doesn't hurt Hillary. And it's only got a 6 electoral votes, so you'd have to concoct quite the scenario where it would be determinative.
Otherwise, in every other state, French's only effect is to reduce Trump's vote, and make a Hillary win more likely. That's how most voters would see it come election day, so at the end, all you're going to get are the NeverTrumpers who would have stayed home anyway. Staying home or voting for the guy who comes in third everywhere...what's the difference?
He's certainly entitled to run, and he'll give folks who can't stand voting for either of the other candidates an option to cast a vote, even if it amounts only to a protest.
Anyway,I'd rate the most likely effect of French running as:
1) No effect,
2) determining factor in a Hillary win, or
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8,467, 372) French wins.