ABC poll: Trump surge due to massive 36% millennial swingA shocking new poll from ABC News reveals Hillary Clinton is losing to Donald Trump nationwide 46 percent to 44 percent. That’s an 11 percent shift from March, when Trump trailed Clinton by 9 points.
What was the biggest driver in this shift in the polls? Surprisingly, it’s young voters.
Clinton’s support among young voters ages 18 to 29 has dropped 19 percent since March — and Trump has gained 17 percent support from the same demographic. That’s a 36 percent swing.
While Clinton leads Trump in the demographic 45 to 42 percent, this margin in the general election would ensure a Republican landslide. Mitt Romney lost the youth vote to Barack Obama by more than 20 percent, and even a 10 percent Democrat margin would still ensure a decisive victory for Trump.
So, why the big shift?
ABC poll: Trump surge due to massive 36% millennial swing
By Ron Meyer | May 23, 2016 | Comments
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
A shocking new poll from ABC News reveals Hillary Clinton is losing to Donald Trump nationwide 46 percent to 44 percent. That’s an 11 percent shift from March, when Trump trailed Clinton by 9 points.
What was the biggest driver in this shift in the polls? Surprisingly, it’s young voters.
Clinton’s support among young voters ages 18 to 29 has dropped 19 percent since March — and Trump has gained 17 percent support from the same demographic. That’s a 36 percent swing.
While Clinton leads Trump in the demographic 45 to 42 percent, this margin in the general election would ensure a Republican landslide. Mitt Romney lost the youth vote to Barack Obama by more than 20 percent, and even a 10 percent Democrat margin would still ensure a decisive victory for Trump.
So, why the big shift?
via Screenshot
via Screenshot
ABC suggests the shift may be defections from Bernie Sanders’ campaign, many of whom are furious with Clinton and the establishment. ABC noted “[a]nother result indicating Sanders-related defections is the number of liberals saying they’d support Trump vs. Clinton — now 24 percent, up 8 points from March.”
“[Clinton is] losing 20 percent of Bernie Sanders’ supporters to Trump,” ABC found.
Sanders supporters, frustrated by what many of them call the DNC “rigging” the primary, are abandoning the Democrat Party over this fight. A poll last week showed 18 percent of millennials, including many Sanders voters, would support third-party candidate Gov. Gary Johnson. If Johnson fails to receive the Libertarian nomination or doesn’t make the main debates, this ABC poll indicates that many more would consider Trump than was originally thought.
This is an abrupt change in polling, and we will continue to monitor this pattern to see if it continues. Just a few weeks ago, 80 percent of millennials disapproved of Trump’s candidacy. Now, 42 percent support him for president.
My best guess? Republican millennials are settling into supporting Trump, while independents and Sanders supporters are disgusted by the Democrat Party’s Super Delegate system and Clinton’s establishment brand of politics. Millennials still don’t like Trump, but right now, they despise the Clinton Machine even more.
The question is: Can Trump take advantage of this attitude? His advisor rolled out an excellent college affordability plan this month. Now would be the time to take it to young communities nationwide, while also continuing his economic jobs-focused message.
http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/05/23/abc-poll-trump-surge-due-massive-36-millennial-swing/
