Author Topic: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown  (Read 2733 times)

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Offline mirraflake

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Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« on: May 18, 2016, 03:56:54 pm »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/special-report-north-dakotas-oil-patch-humbling-comedown-140752143.html?ref=gs

By Ernest Scheyder

WILLISTON, N.D. (Reuters) - Dave Van Assche didn't fret too much when oil prices started to slide in late 2014.

The postal services business he had built over three short years was thriving, catering to the tens of thousands of people who, like him, had streamed into North Dakota to strike it rich during an unprecedented oil boom.

But the price drop quickened, due in part to a supply glut from the 1.2 million barrels of oil North Dakota was pumping each day. Within a year, oil prices were down more than 70 percent, and North Dakota's oil rush stalled. The daily take at Van Assche's business has sunk from a peak of $2,500 to at best $600 now.

Unwilling to lay off his four employees, Van Assche has been taking short-term jobs around the country to cover costs. He cleaned corn residue from rail cars in Ohio last month. Up next: cleaning a defunct nuclear power plant in California. Van Assche's wife, finance manager for the business, took a job as a substitute teacher for Williston's public schools.

"My business was decimated," said Van Assche, 29 years old. He prays for an oil-price jump, “but now it's very quiet."

By 2014, the U.S. energy boom, supercharged by the revolution in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, had made North Dakota's economy the fastest-growing in the nation. Its unemployment rate was lowest among states. Its gross domestic product of roughly $50 billion that year was more than double 2002 levels.

The pain for much of last year was mitigated as aggressive price hedges and similar maneuvers kept the industry profitable. But those tactics have stopped working. North Dakota's economy shrank 3.4 percent in the third quarter of last year, the weakest performer in the nation. Worse numbers for the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016 are expected in a federal report to be released in June.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2016, 03:57:28 pm by mirraflake »

Offline mirraflake

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2016, 03:59:21 pm »
I live in Appalachia prime oil-gas country.  I drive past an RV park for gas/oil employees.  2 years ago over 700 Rv's..now it's down to about 50-60.

Oh well it will come back.

Offline Sanguine

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2016, 04:10:16 pm »
Yeah, this is really tough.  It will come back up eventually, but a lot of people are going to feel the pain in the meantime.

Oceander

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2016, 04:11:09 pm »
In the long term, even in the medium term, oil prices will come back up. 

Offline mirraflake

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2016, 04:15:45 pm »
Yeah, this is really tough.  It will come back up eventually, but a lot of people are going to feel the pain in the meantime.

I have some clients who expanded their business via bank loans to meet the gas demands and now they are hurting. Lot's of bounced checks or waiting 4-6 months for payment.

4-5 years ago when it was gravy days the gas companies did not even ask the price but "when can you deliver it-yesterday is preferable"

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2016, 04:36:05 pm »

Energy business:  Obama=Hillary

"God must love the common man, he made so many of them.�  Abe Lincoln

Offline Stosh

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2016, 04:54:03 pm »
The only bright spot in the Obozo economy is fast crumbling.

Offline Sanguine

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2016, 05:31:45 pm »
The only bright spot in the Obozo economy is fast crumbling.

And, it was only a bright spot in spite of him not due to him.

Offline Stosh

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2016, 04:45:07 pm »
And, it was only a bright spot in spite of him not due to him.

 :silly: :silly: :silly:  I thought that went without saying.....

Offline TomSea

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2016, 05:01:08 pm »
I once heard that North Dakota had a cost outlay of some exorbitant figure for the many new schools they were going to have to build, I don't know if it was over a billion (not really that high considering) but can one imagine building a bunch of new schools, elementary on up and then, the price dives and one could be stuck with all of those buildings or construction in progress. It has always been a boom or bust industry.

Offline TomSea

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2016, 05:03:00 pm »
In the long term, even in the medium term, oil prices will come back up.

They will come up; but not sure if the boom level could be sustained.

However, that's why I think it would have been good if Romney (not plugging for him, just saying) or others had been elected; America could become more energy self-sufficient and not be dependent on shady characters from the Mid-East where really, we have no obligation to be involved with anyway.

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2016, 05:05:23 pm »
They will come up; but not sure if the boom level could be sustained.

However, that's why I think it would have been good if Romney (not plugging for him, just saying) or others had been elected; America could become more energy self-sufficient and not be dependent on shady characters from the Mid-East where really, we have no obligation to be involved with anyway.

True about the boom, probably more of a bubble.  That's always the trouble with bubbles (and tribbles). 

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2016, 05:06:13 pm »
And, it was only a bright spot in spite of him not due to him.

Truly, more than most can imagine.

Were it not for the western oil fields, I've read a number of experts who seriously doubt the economy would have ever stabilized under Obama, and we'd be in some deep doo-doo about right now, like Depression deep.
The Republic is lost.

Offline Suppressed

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2016, 05:22:19 pm »
However, that's why I think it would have been good if Romney (not plugging for him, just saying) or others had been elected; America could become more energy self-sufficient and not be dependent on shady characters from the Mid-East where really, we have no obligation to be involved with anyway.

For America's future, it would be better to keep ours as a strategic reserve and use up overseas oil first.
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Offline TomSea

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2016, 05:31:15 pm »
For America's future, it would be better to keep ours as a strategic reserve and use up overseas oil first.

As of now, we don't buy Arab oil, it is a very miniscule amount, Europe buys Saudi, etc. oil but we should not be real partners with a lot of these shady characters.

If they act hospitably; then, we can do business with them.

But not fight their wars. That isn't good for America's future!
« Last Edit: May 20, 2016, 05:40:25 pm by TomSea »

Offline Sanguine

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2016, 06:02:07 pm »
Truly, more than most can imagine.

Were it not for the western oil fields, I've read a number of experts who seriously doubt the economy would have ever stabilized under Obama, and we'd be in some deep doo-doo about right now, like Depression deep.

You know that moment when the Coyote runs off the edge of the cliff and he hangs there for a minute until he realizes what has happened, and then he starts windmilling his feet to try to get back on the cliff?   I think that's where we are.  The part before we realize what's happening.


Offline Relic

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2016, 06:21:21 pm »
The only bright spot in the Obozo economy is fast crumbling.

That's ok, Hillary will continue his work.

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2016, 06:26:43 pm »
You know that moment when the Coyote runs off the edge of the cliff and he hangs there for a minute until he realizes what has happened, and then he starts windmilling his feet to try to get back on the cliff?   I think that's where we are.  The part before we realize what's happening.


Yes! Perfect analogy.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2016, 08:11:49 pm »
For America's future, it would be better to keep ours as a strategic reserve and use up overseas oil first.

Why?  We have an almost unlimited supply. It this is your philosophy, why not just ride a horse, as it will be even cheaper.
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Offline SirLinksALot

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2016, 10:07:02 pm »
Moral of the story: You cannot depend on one industry for the prosperity of your state. This is very much like your stock portfolio. When the industry you depend on goes into a downturn, you're screwed.
Diversify, diversify, diversify.

Texas learned that lesson long ago. I hope North Dakota does too.

Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2016, 02:08:24 pm »
True about the boom, probably more of a bubble.  That's always the trouble with bubbles (and tribbles).

It is a real boom, advanced by technology.

The bubble you are describing relates to price, not production.

Think in terms of how technology has advanced the computer industry.

Both computers and energy are now plentiful and accessible,and not exhorbitantly priced.
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Offline Suppressed

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2016, 04:48:40 pm »
Why?  We have an almost unlimited supply.

That's news to us geologists.
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Offline thackney

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2016, 06:06:00 pm »
As of now, we don't buy Arab oil, it is a very miniscule amount, Europe buys Saudi, etc. oil but we should not be real partners with a lot of these shady characters.

~20% of our imported oil comes from the Persian Gulf.  Nearly 40% comes from OPEC.

U.S. Crude Oil Imports by Country of Origin
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbblpd_m.htm
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2016, 10:29:59 am »
Moral of the story: You cannot depend on one industry for the prosperity of your state. This is very much like your stock portfolio. When the industry you depend on goes into a downturn, you're screwed.
Diversify, diversify, diversify.

Texas learned that lesson long ago. I hope North Dakota does too.
This isn't North Dakota's first oil boom--it is the third.
Those of us who got here on the last one saw this coming, warned people long before it happened, and saved enough money to get by for a while, after everything was paid off.
Others either didn't get the memo, invested from afar and decided they could run it from there, or thought it would never end. Not so, and we knew it. Now to reign in State spending. (Like a bunch of drunken Obamas).
The major industries in the state are agriculture (farming and ranching) and energy production (Oil, gas, coal, and electricity). We export all of that. The Obamites have been after two of the main industrial sectors (coal and Oil & Gas), and between the EPA and other agencies won't do the Farmers and Ranchers any favors, either.

If you donate to any of the dogooder outfits that have tried to get critters here listed as endangered species, please quit. One just listed is a butterfly that wasn't very common in the 1910 survey, and has stayed that way, but is now listed because some nitwit thinks that it should be more plentiful than it ever has been. That will be used to mercilessly screw with Ranchers, and who knows what the Sage Grouse listing (endangered in what, 11 states? :huh?:) will bring in econazi prosecutions.
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Offline IsailedawayfromFR

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Re: Special Report: North Dakotas Humbling Comedown
« Reply #24 on: June 01, 2016, 06:58:23 pm »
That's news to us geologists.

How many lifetimes of energy do you wish to have available?  1, 10 100?

I am a reserves engineer who has also been in exploration for more years than I wish to remember.

During my now 43 years in industry, I have seen the variances of 'Assessments' of resources, seen new technology that has been developed and utilized, and am convinced we ain't seen nothing yet.  I recall when I was first out of school in the '70s that we were expected to run out of oil in 10 years.

It did not happen, and the production since that time has greatly exceeded the reserves supposed to exist then, and we have higher production and higher reserves than ever at present.

I worked unconventionals for the past 10 years and seen almost all the resource potential basins in North America.

We have a staggering amount of hydrocarbons that are available for development.  This holds true particularly for natural gas.  True, price dictates a lot, but that will come back around and the hydrocarbons will in fact be developed and produced.

Go talk to Steve Holditch, former head of A&M's Petroleum Engineering.  His assessments are that there exists 10 times the resources of unconventionals in basins where conventionals have been discovered.

Ten times.  And we have been after it for over 100 years.

Can you please let me know where is the scientific resource that permits you to post your own off-hand comment?  I am interested on what basis you are alluding to when you suggest a more finite amount of hyrdrocarbons.

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