Real Reason Why Cruz and Kasich Dropped Out Now

[libertybele]

Though I'm not exactly in agreement with some of this article; Cruz no longer saw a clear path to winning and I think he was smart in dropping out when he did; it saved himself and his family from more attacks from Trump and his supporters. As for Kasich ... he was in it to stop Cruz ... if he decides to run again, that's not going to be forgiven or forgotten. If Kasich does become Trump's VP ... it will sink his political career...he too will have been 'Trumped'.

The Real Reason Ted Cruz And John Kasich Dropped Out Now

There wasn't much public-opinion research available in 1964, so you'll have to take it on the testimony of us old folks that the Republican Party that nominated Barry Goldwater was more than a little pessimistic about his chances of victory. Yeah, there was some excitement about the possibility that Goldwater's shocking opposition to the Civil Rights Act of 1964 would finally break the Democratic Solid South once and for all; it was a bigger and more empirically grounded version of the occasional excitement over Trump's potential appeal to white working-class people (who already vote heavily Republican). But a lot of Republicans walked away from the Goldwater-Miller ticket, some as a matter of conviction but more out of a prudential disdain for lost causes. And even before LBJ's landslide, there was talk about GOP pols positioning themselves to inherit the wreckage. We could soon be seeing the same phenomenon in 2016.

One of the things you do when you are positioning yourself for a future presidential run is to pose as a party loyalist and then volunteer for down-ballot drudge work. That's how Richard Nixon rehabilitated himself in 1964, and why he had an enormous advantage over Nelson Rockefeller — who attacked Goldwater supporters at the convention and refused to lift a finger for the ticket in the general election — in 1968. When Ronald Reagan jumped into the '68 race very late and Nixon was trying to hold the line against the wildly popular Californian among Southern conservatives, his loyalty to Goldwater probably saved the day. That's the context in which we should understand the decisions by Ted Cruz and John Kasich to fold their tents before it was mathematically necessary this year. Why make permanent enemies of Trump supporters? Both these men are almost certainly thinking about giving it another whirl in 2020, after Trump's inevitable defeat. Being the party loyalist who nonetheless offers the party a very different future is the safest course of action.

Anyone who actually joins Trump's ticket or gets too close to the fire of the Donald's rhetoric, on the other hand, is probably not thinking about 2020. The number of pols who find something else to do when Trump's circus comes to their town this fall will likely show how few Republicans are jockeying for spots in a Trump Administration and how many are looking beyond November.

And what will their post-Trump arguments be? We can already anticipate some of them.

For Ted Cruz and the movement conservatives he represents, the argument is easy: Republicans lost in 2008 and 2012 and 2016 because they did not make their campaigns a crusade for True Conservatism, and thus it's now time, finally, to give it a try in 2020.

For John Kasich, the easiest argument will probably be that Republicans need to fix their gazes on general-election polls from the get-go next time around, and make electability their principle litmus test for candidates. ...

...Yeah, it's groan-inducing to say this, and not something I want to be true at all. But thanks to the newly minted 2016 Republican presidential nominee, the 2020 Invisible Primary has already begun.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/2020-republican-presidential-race-already-going.html

[Jazzhead]

Hours before Kasich dropped out, his campaign sent a lengthy e-mail to his donors (including me) stating that he was going to stay in the race until California.   The dream, it appears, was to finally obtain the one-on-one contest with Trump, in a diverse state, without a polarizing alternative like Cruz. 

So it seems to me that some pressure may have been applied to get Kasich to drop out.  It may have been as simple as anticipated sources of funding dried up.   But IMO the real reason may have been to create the surprise that we all received within a day of the Indiana primary - all opposition to Trump folding, a month before California and two months before the convention.   The sudden end of the primary contest and Trump's emergence as the presumptive nominee months before the convention has the following potential consequences:

  - It may pressure Trump to take steps to tone down his rhetoric and unify the party.   

  -  If, as seems clear by now,  Trump has no such interest,  it places in bold relief the consequences the GOP faces in November, with sufficient time for delegates to know the score and take action to avoid political suicide.     

  - It gives activists time to consider the possibility of a third party candidacy.  Remember, to get on the ballot in most states,  that effort must ramp up now,  not in two months. 

     IMO,  Kasich agreed to drop out to further the foregoing objectives.     

[libertybele]

Hours before Kasich dropped out, his campaign sent a lengthy e-mail to his donors (including me) stating that he was going to stay in the race until California.   The dream, it appears, was to finally obtain the one-on-one contest with Trump, in a diverse state, without a polarizing alternative like Cruz. 

So it seems to me that some pressure may have been applied to get Kasich to drop out.  It may have been as simple as anticipated sources of funding dried up.   But IMO the real reason may have been to create the surprise that we all received within a day of the Indiana primary - all opposition to Trump folding, a month before California and two months before the convention.   The sudden end of the primary contest and Trump's emergence as the presumptive nominee months before the convention has the following potential consequences:

  - It may pressure Trump to take steps to tone down his rhetoric and unify the party.   

  -  If, as seems clear by now,  Trump has no such interest,  it places in bold relief the consequences the GOP faces in November, with sufficient time for delegates to know the score and take action to avoid political suicide.     

  - It gives activists time to consider the possibility of a third party candidacy.  Remember, to get on the ballot in most states,  that effort must ramp up now,  not in two months. 

     IMO,  Kasich agreed to drop out to further the foregoing objectives.   

I respect your opinion, but Kasich only won OH and only had a handful of delegates.... Cruz wasn't in his way, he was in Cruz's way.  Kasich should have done the honorable thing for the party and dropped out after OH.  Secondly, I'm not sure, but I don't think either Cruz or Kasich can now run 3rd party -- and I believe they would have to withdraw (not suspend) and requalify in all 50 states.  That takes a huge ground game (which Cruz has but rumor says they've  climbed aboard the Trump train) and a tremendous amount of time.   Five months just isn't enough time - I read months ago, that it was too late to run 3rd party.  Maybe Cruz and Kasich could pull their teams together to save some time and both run 3rd party ... but Kasich already backed out on his deal with Cruz so he can't be trusted.

Its over.  Trump is our nominee.  There just really isn't time to run 3rd party.  I'm not so sure you can run as a Republican, drop out and then run as an Independent. There are others running 3rd party as well ... so even that vote would be split and would be an impossible win at this point.

[r9etb]

  -  If, as seems clear by now,  Trump has no such interest,  it places in bold relief the consequences the GOP faces in November, with sufficient time for delegates to know the score and take action to avoid political suicide.     

Good post.  I think your second "potential consequence" (above) could be the most likely of the three. 

I think Paul Ryan has tipped the hand of how the convention might play out.  I imagine "they" are trying hard to find a way to keep Trump from being nominated on the first ballot.  At this point I don't know if that's even a possibility, but if they can find a way you can bet they'll do it.

I've always figured Kasich as a guy who's holding himself out as the "Adult Alternative," whose strategy was essentially to shoot for being the compromise candidate who comes into his own in later Convention ballots.

Maybe that hope is now gone -- with Cruz out, he can't see any way to keep Trump from hitting 1237 delegates, so no second ballot. 

Or maybe there's a deeper strategic thought that an unopposed Trump will turn out to be so appalling that the pressure for an alternative Republican candidate becomes irresistible.  (Trump certainly isn't helping himself on this score...)  Can the California primary be "fixed" in such a manner that it doesn't put Trump over the top?

Finally .... the word Kasich used was "suspended."  Is there a legal distinction between "suspending" and "dropping out?"

[Jazzhead]

To be clear, LB,  I wasn't suggesting that Kasich run a third party candidacy.   That's simply impractical, for the reason you cite.   But there could be time to recruit someone who hasn't competed in the primaries, or utilize the vehicle of an existing third party, such as the Libertarians.  I'm less of a social conservative than many here, so the idea of building up the Libertarian Party as an alternative to the Trump, er, Republican Party is appealing to me.   

 

[libertybele]

To be clear, LB,  I wasn't suggesting that Kasich run a third party candidacy.   That's simply impractical, for the reason you cite.   But there could be time to recruit someone who hasn't competed in the primaries, or utilize the vehicle of an existing third party, such as the Libertarians.  I'm less of a social conservative than many here, so the idea of building up the Libertarian Party as an alternative to the Trump, er, Republican Party is appealing to me.   

 

I particularly like and in the past have supported the Constitution Party.  However, the way our electoral system is set up, it is nearly impossible for a 3rd party candidate to win.  The way that the number of GOPe members are growing who refuse to back Trump; something is brewing...so who knows.  The only way that Trump isn't going to win is if the RNC changes the rules at Convention.  In all fairness though as much as Trump disgusts me, he has won the majority and certainly we cannot and should not dismiss the voice of the people who chose him.

[libertybele]

The more I think about it the more I am certain Kasich was in it to stop Cruz.  Nothing else makes sense.  He has not had a path to an outright win for a long time.  he has not even had a path to a convention win because he would need to win 5 states.  He made that stupid deal with Cruz to sabotage Cruz just as he did Rubio.  Both agreements were one sided in that one performed as promised and the other didn't.  Regardless of the sincerity, though, it is obvious that taking Cruz out was his purposes BECAUSE of the deal.  Kasich had no expectation of winning in Indiana.  So why did he drop out immediately after Cruz?  His prospects went up when Cruz dropped out.  They were not realistic prospects, but then they never were.  The ONLY reason for him to drop out immediately after Cruz was because his goal was accomplished.  Nothing else explains it.  Why?  I would say it is one of two reasons.  One, he is aligned with the Boehner/Dole/McConnell liberal wing of the party; or, two, he colluded with Trump for some payoff such as V.P.

Bingo.  I believe it's a little of both.  Kasich has belonged to the Washington cartel for quite some time and he was able to sustain his campaign with the funding from Trump.  The only piece to the puzzle that still doesn't make sense; is if Kasich had cut a deal with Boehner/McConnel, et al ... why are Romney, Bush(s), Ryan and others refusing to get behind Trump ... that doesn't make sense.  They may want Kasich in ...and they could change rules to favor him ... but they would  have to really do some maneuvering because Cruz had more delegates.  The scenario that comes in to my mind is ... they could change the rules so that no one gets the majority at the Convention and allow those in the House to  select our nominee.  At that point ... I think it will go to Bush or Romney.  Frankly, I think that the GOP electorate would be relieved and go with anyone that the House appointed...anybody but Trump!

#NeverTrump

[kidd]

I particularly like and in the past have supported the Constitution Party.  However, the way our electoral system is set up, it is nearly impossible for a 3rd party candidate to win.  The way that the number of GOPe members are growing who refuse to back Trump; something is brewing...so who knows.  The only way that Trump isn't going to win is if the RNC changes the rules at Convention.  In all fairness though as much as Trump disgusts me, he has won the majority and certainly we cannot and should not dismiss the voice of the people who chose him.

I live in Connecticut and my vote will neither help nor hurt Clinton or Trump.
I will actively attack Clinton. I will not attack Trump.

I plan to vote for the Constitution Party. My understanding is that if any party gets 5% of the popular vote that they become eligible (by the Federal Election Commission)  for the Presidential Election Campaign Fund’s grant for the next election.
http://ivn.us/2012/11/01/why-5-matters-to-gary-johnson/

[libertybele]

I live in Connecticut and my vote will neither help nor hurt Clinton or Trump.
I will actively attack Clinton. I will not attack Trump.

I plan to vote for the Constitution Party. My understanding is that if any party gets 5% of the popular vote that they become eligible (by the Federal Election Commission)  for the Presidential Election Campaign Fund’s grant for the next election.
http://ivn.us/2012/11/01/why-5-matters-to-gary-johnson/

I would love to see it ... problem is, I'm not so sure that we're going to see a 2020 election. I don't think this country will survive under either Trump or Hillary.