Author Topic: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania  (Read 19308 times)

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Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #200 on: April 27, 2016, 02:59:29 am »
Hitlary got over 100K votes more than Trump. Bernie got 50K votes less than Trump. Anyone think he is going to win this state in the General? This is going to be a solid Hitlary state in the fall just like every other state he won tonight.

Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #201 on: April 27, 2016, 03:09:30 am »
Hitlary got over 100K votes more than Trump. Bernie got 50K votes less than Trump. Anyone think he is going to win this state in the General? This is going to be a solid Hitlary state in the fall just like every other state he won tonight.

In addition to the three Cruz delegates listed on post #199, two of the delegates in CD7 are on the Cruz slate.  So that could be at least five.
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #202 on: April 27, 2016, 03:19:27 am »
Looking at CD 1 and CD2, do not see any for Cruz
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #203 on: April 27, 2016, 03:24:00 am »
Yates and English are on the Cruz slate for CD3.

That could be a pickup up of two for Cruz.
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #204 on: April 27, 2016, 03:29:56 am »
Nothing in CD4 for Cruz

Nothing in CD5, CD6 for Cruz

Three for Cruz in CD7

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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #205 on: April 27, 2016, 03:33:21 am »
One for Cruz in CD 8

Zero in CD 9

Zero in CD 10
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #206 on: April 27, 2016, 03:36:44 am »
Zero in CD 11

One in CD 12

Zero in CD 13

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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #207 on: April 27, 2016, 03:41:22 am »
3 in CD14

Not Available in CD15

3 in CD16

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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #208 on: April 27, 2016, 03:43:26 am »
Zero in CD17

One in CD18
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #209 on: April 27, 2016, 03:44:40 am »
I see up to 14 delegates for Cruz based on the above analysis.

Had hoped for 30.  Still, 14 is not a wash out
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Offline AnybodyButaDem

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #210 on: April 27, 2016, 03:47:39 am »
Apparently SELECTED managed a whopping three delegates at the end of the night, even though he lost that district.  Some of those listed above are reneging on their vote, for the sake of being credible within their own voters and peers in their communities.

Yeah, the guy is a winner!  VOTERS ARE DISGUSTED AND DON'T TRUSTED!!

He's the Hindenburg of GOP presidential candidates in my lifetime.  What a flameout! 
« Last Edit: April 27, 2016, 03:51:08 am by AnybodyButaDem »
Guess who got the NYT's endorsement in the GOP primary?

Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #211 on: April 27, 2016, 03:54:30 am »
See you at 1237.  OR maybe VP.

What an attitude.


Apparently SELECTED managed a whopping three delegates at the end of the night, even though he lost that district.  Some of those listed above are reneging on their vote, for the sake of being credible within their own voters and peers in their communities.

Yeah, the guy is a winner!  VOTERS ARE DISGUSTED AND DON'T TRUSTED!!

He's the Hindenburg of GOP presidential candidates in my lifetime.  What a flameout!
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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #212 on: April 27, 2016, 05:51:17 am »
Thanks LD for the updates. Unfortunately the Trumpets don't realize how little they won tonite.
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Offline Timber Rattler

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #213 on: April 27, 2016, 08:16:04 am »
Dang...Trump got 57% in Adams County, Cruz 24%, and Kasich 15%.  I didn't think that many people here drank the kool-aid but they did.   :shrug:
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Offline oldmomster

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #214 on: April 27, 2016, 09:19:01 am »
sheesh....Trump style really connected with PA voters. 


Offline Timber Rattler

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #215 on: April 27, 2016, 10:11:07 am »
Something to consider though...

http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/politics/4016904-more-60000-disgruntled-pennsylvania-democrats-switch-parties

"More than 60,000 disgruntled Pennsylvania Democrats switch parties"

A retired middle school principal was so moved by Donald Trump that he switched his Democratic Party registration so he can vote for him in Tuesday’s Republican presidential primary.

So did the daughter of a steelworker, who twice voted for President Barack Obama but says she is “over” the Democrats’ political correctness.

And a husband-wife team of Trump volunteers — she’s a laid-off airport worker, he’s a laid-off truck driver — were Democrats for 30 years, until recently.

“We always voted Democrat,” said Laurie McGinnis, as her husband Ricky hung a Trump banner outside their South Greensburg home. “But not any more.”

Some of these newly minted Pennsylvania Republicans are formalizing a process that began with Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, when conservative-leaning Democrats began shifting away from the party in the faded industrial state.

Others moved abruptly, inspired by Trump and fed up with a party they say no longer speaks their language.

Together the result is one of the most sizable shifts of partisan allegiance ever in Pennsylvania: 61,500 Democrats have become Republicans so far this year, part of a 145,000 jump in Republican registrations since the fall 2015 election, according to state figures analyzed by both parties. It’s more new Republicans than in the previous four years combined.

The onslaught has helped make Trump the favorite heading into Tuesday’s primary, helping put Pennsylvania, which voted for Obama twice, in play in the November presidential election.

“The party-switching has been going on in an evolutionary way for two decades. This just propelled it faster,” said G. Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin and Marshall University in Lancaster, Pa. “Many of them are Reagan Democrats – white, working-class, blue-collar, incomes of $35,000 to $40,000 or less, high school educations or less.”

“They feel frustrated, they feel left behind,” Madonna said. “They feel Trump is sticking it to the man.”

East of urban Pittsburgh, at Trump headquarters in Monroeville, volunteer Tricia Cunningham said that half the people who walk through the door are party switchers. So many supporters have come in to pick up lawn signs or volunteer that the office has had to open a second floor, and signs are limited to just one per person, Cunningham said.

Even her mother, a lifelong Democrat now living in a nearby nursing home, made the change, she said.

“I look in the mirror and I say, ‘What the hell are you doing?’” Rox Sarrao, the former principal, said with a laugh. He voted for Obama in 2008 and had kept his party affiliation so he could back Democrats in local elections even though he was once a Republican. He went to the county courthouse last month to switch to the GOP. He now drives 40 miles daily to volunteer at the Trump office.

In some ways, it’s no great political mystery what has happened in Pennsylvania, where the remains of the long-gone steel industry rust the landscape and coal country fights for its life.

The mostly white electorate here comes from an earlier iteration of the American melting pot –– Eastern Europeans, Italians, Irish –– who have little resemblance to the newer Democratic coalition of young people, minorities and urban white-collar professionals. Many families have stayed here for generations, as the nation’s economy and demographic trends have moved on.

“We voted Democrat for 59 years,” said Eleanor Kanick, a retired postmaster, with her husband Stanley, a welder, in Avonmore. “Our parents were Democrats, too. I said they’re going to turn over in their graves.”

Tom Balya, a former Democratic County Commissioner in Westmoreland who hosts a local radio show, said callers often voice fears about shifting socioeconomic conditions that have left them struggling to keep up. It’s going take a generation for Democrats to recoup their losses, he said.

“They see this world changing around them,” he said. “It’s a generational thing. You’re not going to get people over 50 to change their beliefs. It’s not going to change quickly.”

But others see a deeper disconnect in a Democratic Party that has put its emphasis on attracting moneyed metropolitan voters and fast-growing minority groups while taking its core blue-collar electorate for granted, a theory spelled out by author Thomas Frank in his new book, “Listen, Liberal.”

Dorothy “Sissy” Aukscunas grew up not far from where she lives now in Beaver. Her father, a Serbian immigrant, was a foreman at a steel mill, the kind of job that enabled his wife to stay home and raise four children.

During the 2008 Democratic primary, she gathered her own young granddaughter to watch history unfold on TV, and cried when Hillary Clinton lost to Obama.

At a coffee shop downtown with her 33-year-old son Micah –– who also switched from Democrat to Republican— she said she’s tired of the Democratic Party championing “politically correct” issues, like who should bake a cake for a gay wedding or whether to say “Happy Holidays” instead of “Merry Christmas,” at a time when terrorism is intensifying and families are struggling to live on wages that haven’t budged from what her husband earned 30 years ago.

“I would say the Democratic Party moved away from me,” she said. “I didn’t move away from it.”

The more she watched Clinton this time, the less she liked, sensing an opportunist politician moving too far to the left to keep pace with the popularity of rival Bernie Sanders.

“One of the main things I noticed was how intolerant tolerant people had become,” she said. “I noticed it in me as well.”

It was a difficult decision to switch, she said, but when her driver’s license came due last fall, she was at the motor vehicle office when she checked the box.

Her grandchildren, who align more with Sanders, have not been pleased.

“I had to go from being a cool Mimi to now I’m a fogey,” she said. “I’m OK with it.”

Democrats downplay the shift as notable but insignificant. When matched with 89,000 new Democrats registered since fall, the overall boost was 56,000 new Republicans in a state with more than 8 million voters. Democrats still hold a more than 900,000-voter advantage over the Republicans in Pennsylvania.

“It fits nicely with the narrative that Trump’s going to bring out this whole cadre of voters … and bring in states like Pennsylvania and the Rust Belt that haven’t been in play for a while,” said Democratic Party spokesman Preston Maddock. “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

At the same time, Republican officials are not necessarily doing backflips over the registration surge. They are very much aware that enthusiasm is more a vote for Trump than an affirmation of the their party. The state’s closed primary system forces voters to choose parties or sit out Tuesday’s contests.

The Republicans know knows its hold on these voters is tenuous.

“Both parties have lost track of how to reach out to middle-class voters,” said Michael T. Korns, Republican Party chairman in Westmoreland County, the next county over from Trump’s headquarters. “I don’t think anyone has been talking directly to voters in Westmoreland County. What we’ve been getting for a long time is basically ignored.”

Laurie McGinnis, 49, and her husband, Ricky, 57, who grew up in the area and met as school bus drivers, were watching the first Republican debate last summer when they began thinking about switching.

“We were just sitting there with our mouths open, in awe,” said McGinnis, who, like her husband, now collects disability benefits after both were laid off.

They were impressed by Trump’s willingness to talk critically about immigrants and others in a way that other politicians wouldn’t dare. “The silent majority’s been kept quiet by all the political correctness in the world,” she said, reading from some notes she had jotted in a notebook to organize her thoughts.

Even though thieves stole their Trump yard sign, she was stapling a new one to a flagpole Friday evening. Ricky hung it outside their tidy home, as the 4-year-old granddaughter they are raising looked on.

“I don’t care how many signs they steal,” she said. “It’s not going to change the voters.
aka "nasty degenerate SOB," "worst of the worst at Free Republic," "Garbage Troll," "Neocon Warmonger," "Filthy Piece of Trash," "damn $#%$#@!," "Silly f'er," "POS," "war pig," "neocon scumbag," "insignificant little ankle nipper," "@ss-clown," "neocuck," "termite," "Uniparty Deep stater," "Never Trump sack of dog feces," "avid Bidenista," "filthy Ukrainian," "war whore," "fricking chump," psychopathic POS, and depraved SOB.

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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #216 on: April 27, 2016, 12:00:30 pm »
The next worry is Bobby Knight in Indiana.  Will Pence endorse Cruz or is Pence too chicken.

Pence has indicated he does not like Trump.  Walker did have the guts to endorse Cruz


Dang...Trump got 57% in Adams County, Cruz 24%, and Kasich 15%.  I didn't think that many people here drank the kool-aid but they did.   :shrug:
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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #217 on: April 27, 2016, 12:14:12 pm »
Sums it all up.

On to Indiana.


“They feel frustrated, they feel left behind,” Madonna said. “They feel Trump is sticking it to the man.”

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Offline LonestarDream

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Offline WAC

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #219 on: April 27, 2016, 06:01:09 pm »
Race remains far from over Lonestar.....The only thing that just happened is Trump sweeped the liberal/ demorat Northeast that no GOP will win in November.....Trumps voting pattern = he does really well in blue states.....Yet Democrats out voted Repubs  in all five states..........(There's a reason it's said now that the 'ONLY" definition for Republican today is to register as one.) ........

If you are playing the long game as Cruz is....the Northeast states will not be in play for a Republican Win this fall anymore than they were for Cruz in this primary....New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland...these are all states that went into the tank for Obama in 2008 and again in 2012.

At any rate....1237 remains the magic number .....and if Trump gets the Nominee he's going to need the grass roots, the Gop and the Delegates to take this home in the general...he's a far cry from that at this juncture.

My BEST consolation is that No One sits in power, unless the Lord allows it
 


Going forward Indiana and California are the two that  matter and they matter a lot.



Birds of a feather....



Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #220 on: April 27, 2016, 06:05:12 pm »
Heard the radio this morning that Trump got 39/40 of the 54 delegates.

That would fit nicely with Cruz having 14.   Let me know if you hear differently. 
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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #221 on: April 27, 2016, 06:18:09 pm »
Race remains far from over Lonestar.....The only thing that just happened is Trump sweeped the liberal/ demorat Northeast that no GOP will win in November.....Trumps voting pattern = he does really well in blue states.....Yet Democrats out voted Repubs  in all five states..........(There's a reason it's said now that the 'ONLY" definition for Republican today is to register as one.) ........

If you are playing the long game as Cruz is....the Northeast states will not be in play for a Republican Win this fall anymore than they were for Cruz in this primary....New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland...these are all states that went into the tank for Obama in 2008 and again in 2012.

At any rate....1237 remains the magic number .....and if Trump gets the Nominee he's going to need the grass roots, the Gop and the Delegates to take this home in the general...he's a far cry from that at this juncture.

My BEST consolation is that No One sits in power, unless the Lord allows it
 


Going forward Indiana and California are the two that  matter and they matter a lot.



Birds of a feather....


Will Cruz concede after losing Indiana?

Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #222 on: April 27, 2016, 06:36:28 pm »
Will Cruz concede after losing Indiana?

Dont think so.  Cruz has a great chance to win Indiana.  Nebrask, MT and SD should be clear Cruz pick ups.

Then the west coast.  ....

Until Donald gets to 1237, Cruz stays in .  Too much fight left.

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Offline LonestarDream

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #223 on: April 27, 2016, 07:02:48 pm »
@WAC


Just realized that Cruz picking Carly is not just about having a women on the ticket.

It is about California that is coming up.

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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Cruz delegate guide for Pennsylvania
« Reply #224 on: April 27, 2016, 07:05:44 pm »
Be great if he could announce Carly and get the Pence endorsement in the same shot.
The Republic is lost.