NY Never Mattered, Cruz Won the Presidency

[Right_in_Virginia]

It's not the GOP doing the scorning, Once-ler.  It's a very angry, spiteful Trump supporter.

But I have no doubt the origin of that photo was a leftist source.  The left hates Evangelical Christians like you and me. 

Just like this poster apparently does.....

I've posted it again so you can take a moment and actually read it.   This graphic is dissing long-documented conservative delusion- - - and was custom made to include on a thread where conservatives are clinging to the fantasy that Trump's NY landslide did not matter and will not hurt Teddy. 

Oh, and going forward, if you're going to define my faith and attack me personally, be a grownup and do so to me directly.   Otherwise, stand down and stop spewing your very unique brand of hit-and-run hate. 

[ArneFufkin]

Cruz got schlonged in New York. Being shut out in a state with that many delegates does indeed matter.

I disagree.  In fact, I would be surprised if Cruz spent even one day in the next week - and going forward - campaigning in New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland etc.   He's going to gain neither GOP delegates nor electoral votes in the General from this Blue State region.   No GOP candidate will.   He'll spend his time in Pennsylvania firming up his delegate selection infrastructure and building his support in the Western region for the May/June primaries.

Cruz' path to winning an open convention nomination effectively runs through Indiana and California.  He knows this, especially given Kasich's ego-driven, quixotic quest to be of any relevance whatsoever in this process besides mucking up Cruz' prospects in places like Pennsylvania.

[A-Lert]

It's not the GOP doing the scorning, Once-ler.  It's a very angry, spiteful Trump supporter.

But I have no doubt the origin of that photo was a leftist source.  The left hates Evangelical Christians like you and me. 

Just like this poster apparently does.....

The most angry, vulgar, spiteful, hypocritical and vile  posters are anti-Trumps. Proof is everywhere.

[Lando Lincoln]

The most angry, vulgar, spiteful, hypocritical and vile  posters are anti-Trumps.

Brilliant in its hypocrisy.

[A-Lert]

I disagree.  In fact, I would be surprised if Cruz spent even one day in the next week - and going forward - campaigning in New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland etc.   He's going to gain neither GOP delegates nor electoral votes in the General from this Blue State region.   No GOP candidate will.   He'll spend his time in Pennsylvania firming up his delegate selection infrastructure and building his support in the Western region for the May/June primaries.

Cruz' path to winning an open convention nomination effectively runs through Indiana and California.  He knows this, especially given Kasich's ego-driven, quixotic quest to be of any relevance whatsoever in this process besides mucking up Cruz' prospects in places like Pennsylvania.

Of course you disagree. When Trump didn't campaign in states where he had no chance of winning, he was roundly ridiculed right here on this forum. New York was a tremendous momentum builder for Trump going into the home stretch. The GOP is starting to see the likely outcome prior to any open convention. Gov. Scott Walker said yesterday that he would support Trump if he is the nominee.

[A-Lert]

Brilliant in its hypocrisy.

I can post some examples, but I prefer not to foul the forum.

[Mesaclone]

New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency

The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.

 Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.   

Whats left now?

California 172
Indiana 57
New Jersey 51
Washington 44
Maryland 38
Nebraska 36
West Virginia 34
South Dakota 29
Connecticut 28
Oregon 28
Montana 27
New Mexico 24
Rhode Island 19
Pennsylvania 17 +54

Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.

He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump... These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.

Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.

Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.

In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.

Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.

Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on.
One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.

However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.

Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.

Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote):
Oregon 28
Oklahoma 43
California (projected) 100
South Dakota 29
Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54
Arkansas 40
Kansas 40
Kentucky 46
Montana 27

The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.

This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.

The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.

Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.

So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.

Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.

http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/20/new-york-never-mattered-ted-cruz-won-presidency/

What you've shown with this article, is that you're clinging to the hope that a lone snowball can pass through a lake of lave and emerge intact on the other side. Its filled with comical assumptions (all 57 unbound delegates in Pa to Cruz, 100 delegates from Cali, you show 40 Ark delegates to Cruz when he only has 15 on the first ballot, you show 40 in Kansas when he has just 24). And that's a partial list. While I get that you're arguing what will happen on successive ballots, it just isn't going to get that far...and if it does, your prediction slate is laughably optimistic for your guy. Plus, with Manafort on the job now and Trump's resource availability, you can mostly kiss goodbye a big chunk of the unbounds...including in Pennsylvania.

I love analysis....what you showed in the article was a trip to Wonderland, complete with lollipop bridges and chocolate gumdrops.

I actually feel really bad for you anti-Trumps if you are clinging to that kind of wild fantasy.

What's actually going to happen:
1) Trump rolls into the convention within 50-100 delegates of the finish line, including most of the California delegates.
2) Trump secures, quite easily, another 100+ delegates from the unbounds putting him well over the top.
3) Most of the establishment accepts the inevitable, and allows no changes in the convention rules.

Finally, one has to assume the article is meant as satire...trying to pretend its fantasy is the intellectual equal of a Trump best case scenario. Unfortunately, for some of you, it just isn't.

[musiclady]

Brilliant in its hypocrisy.

Indeed.

[Sanguine]

What you've shown with this article, is that you're clinging to the hope that a lone snowball can pass through a lake of lave and emerge intact on the other side. Its filled with comical assumptions (all 57 unbound delegates in Pa to Cruz, 100 delegates from Cali, you show 40 Ark delegates to Cruz when he only has 15 on the first ballot, you show 40 in Kansas when he has just 24). And that's a partial list. While I get that you're arguing what will happen on successive ballots, it just isn't going to get that far...and if it does, your prediction slate is laughably optimistic for your guy. Plus, with Manafort on the job now and Trump's resource availability, you can mostly kiss goodbye a big chunk of the unbounds...including in Pennsylvania.

I love analysis....what you showed in the article was a trip to Wonderland, complete with lollipop bridges and chocolate gumdrops.

I actually feel really bad for you anti-Trumps if you are clinging to that kind of wild fantasy.

What's actually going to happen:
1) Trump rolls into the convention within 50-100 delegates of the finish line, including most of the California delegates.
2) Trump secures, quite easily, another 100+ delegates from the unbounds putting him well over the top.
3) Most of the establishment accepts the inevitable, and allows no changes in the convention rules.

Finally, one has to assume the article is meant as satire...trying to pretend its fantasy is the intellectual equal of a Trump best case scenario. Unfortunately, for some of you, it just isn't.

Now, Clone, don't shed too many tears for us, and we'll do the same for you.   ^-^

[ArneFufkin]

What you've shown with this article, is that you're clinging to the hope that a lone snowball can pass through a lake of lave and emerge intact on the other side. Its filled with comical assumptions (all 57 unbound delegates in Pa to Cruz, 100 delegates from Cali, you show 40 Ark delegates to Cruz when he only has 15 on the first ballot, you show 40 in Kansas when he has just 24). And that's a partial list. While I get that you're arguing what will happen on successive ballots, it just isn't going to get that far...and if it does, your prediction slate is laughably optimistic for your guy. Plus, with Manafort on the job now and Trump's resource availability, you can mostly kiss goodbye a big chunk of the unbounds...including in Pennsylvania.

I love analysis....what you showed in the article was a trip to Wonderland, complete with lollipop bridges and chocolate gumdrops.

I actually feel really bad for you anti-Trumps if you are clinging to that kind of wild fantasy.

What's actually going to happen:
1) Trump rolls into the convention within 50-100 delegates of the finish line, including most of the California delegates.
2) Trump secures, quite easily, another 100+ delegates from the unbounds putting him well over the top.
3) Most of the establishment accepts the inevitable, and allows no changes in the convention rules.

Finally, one has to assume the article is meant as satire...trying to pretend its fantasy is the intellectual equal of a Trump best case scenario. Unfortunately, for some of you, it just isn't.

You've refuted NONE of the assertions made by the writer.  Your list of "what's going to happen" is based on your wild speculation, not on analysis of the peculiarities of each state's delegate selection process and Trump's resultant vulnerabilities after the initial ballot in Cleveland.

The fact is, Cruz has been placing his loyalists into delegate positions should Trump fall short.   Kansas and Arkansas Rubio delegates in those states, for example, have been filled with Cruz loyalists and there are indications that Trump was incapable of even filling HIS first ballot bound delegates with his own loyalists -  they're Cruz guys.   The writer didn't say Cruz would control all 54 Pennsylvania unbound delegates, just that the 54 delegates would be anti-Trump loyalists (Cruz/Kasich) because of the ground work the Cruz and Kasich campaigns have nearly completed there.

I am sure that the writer's prediction of the 100 Cruz delegate win was based on a district by district (there are 54) look at polling data and assumptions of delegate allocation there-in.   

Your confidence is based on 80s hack Paul Manafort beaming in from the Oort Cloud with a bunch of his DC lobbyist cronies to somehow erase the delegate loyalties hard won by Cruz and his Grassroots regime for the past 3 months and longer.   Your support of Donald Trump is founded on a child-like belief in his magical ability to "Make America Great Again" by "Negotiating Great Deals" and "Hiring Great People".

I'll take this writer's expertise on this process over yours.   Thank you very much.

[AnybodyButaDem]

Wishful thinking from the insanely anti-Trump Redstate.

Didn't it come to light that Erickson is on the GOPe payroll?


http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/08/gop-establishment-money-funding-mark-levin-glenn-beck-erick-erickson-to-attack-trump/

[AnybodyButaDem]

Awesome article that'll make the Trumpets take their stroke meds.

Biased wishful thinking that illustrates the worst case scenario for Trump by a GOPe-funded website.

[Sanguine]

Wishful thinking from the insanely anti-Trump Redstate.

Didn't it come to light that Erickson is on the GOPe payroll?


http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/08/gop-establishment-money-funding-mark-levin-glenn-beck-erick-erickson-to-attack-trump/

Hate to burst your bubble, but RedState is also anti-Cruz.

[HonestJohn]

Consider how many serious TBR members you've already lost, not because they've left TBR, but because they have already said publicly they will never vote for Trump, even in the general.  I'm not talking about myself, sinkspur, wingnut, or JazzHead, although I would point out that you have lost us as well, but the quiet thinkers like cuky, Once-ler, NavyCanDo, Bigun, Abaraxas, Luis Gonzalez, Landolincoln (I think), and probably others I can't name.  It should be raising all sorts of alarm bells and red flags that so many committed, serious, thoughtful republicans have already said point blank they won't vote for Trump in the general election.  They are all principled people and I rather doubt you're going to buffalo them into going against their basic principles with bogeyman-under-the-bed stories about what will happen if Trump is not elected.  And if you have already lost so many deeply-committed republicans, just imagine how many Sunday-only republicans you have already lost, how many more you will lose by November, and in particular how many non-republicans will never consider voting for the GOP in the first place.  Both Romney and McCain had higher positives than Trump this early in the election and even they lost.

Wise, thoughtful people would not be so blithely ignoring those alarm bells and red flags as are the Trump people.

Danger Will Robinson!  Danger! 

Face facts:  you have lost already.  If there isn't a second ballot, Trump loses in November.  If there is a second ballot, Trump loses in July.  The question isn't whether Trump's campaign is dead, it is; the question is when will the body fall and will it drag down the country as well.

Consider that Trump supporters know that Trump pushes out far more GOP voters than has ever been seen in living memory.  Also consider that there are still other primary candidates in the race that do not have this level of rejection from within the party (not to mention from without).

And yet they still want Trump.

Which means they don't want a very sizeable chunk of the GOP vote. 

Look at all that and the only conclusion is that Trump supporters do not want to win, but instead seek to destroy the GOP.  (and they have said much the same early on)

So any post about unity is hogwash.

[AnybodyButaDem]

Hate to burst your bubble, but RedState is also anti-Cruz.

They were until Ted got on his knees begging for GOPe help in swiping delegates in a state where he'll be lucky to get 25% of the vote.  Now they are Team Ted.

[Mesaclone]

Now, Clone, don't shed too many tears for us, and we'll do the same for you.   ^-^

I weep for my party. It is filled with people too shortsighted to vote for the party's nominee, because "their" guy lost in the primary. That childish attitude, is precisely why we continue to lose.

[Mesaclone]

Consider that Cruz supporters know that Cruz pushes out far more Reagan Democrat and Independent voters than has ever been seen in living memory.  Also consider that there are still other primary candidates in the race that CAN shift the electoral map in the GOP's favor.

And yet they still want Cruz.

Which means they don't want to win the general election. 

Look at all that and the only conclusion is that Cruz supporters do not want to win, but instead seek to destroy the GOP by appealing only to the heinously out of touch evangelical wing of the party (and they have said much the same early on).

So any post about unity is hogwash.

Your post wasn't so far off...just needed some rational editing.

[HonestJohn]

Your post wasn't so far off...just needed some rational editing.

Most Trump supporters will vote GOP against Hillary, no matter the candidate.

And if that isn't true, then... well, their call for comity and togetherness is yet another example of their hypocrisy.

Which is it, Mesa?

---

Also, your post doesn't negate mine at all.  For there is still Kasich.

[Mesaclone]

Most Trump supporters will vote GOP against Hillary, no matter the candidate.

And if that isn't true, then... well, their call for comity and togetherness is yet another example of their hypocrisy.

Which is it, Mesa?

---

Also, your post doesn't negate mine at all.  For there is still Kasich.

Oh, it IS true. As will most Cruz and Kasich supporters once Trump is the nominee. Its only the fringe nutjobs, and the establishment insiders who fear losing power who will shift to Hillary or won't vote.

[Sanguine]

I weep for my party. It is filled with people too shortsighted to vote for the party's nominee, because "their" guy lost in the primary. That childish attitude, is precisely why we continue to lose.

Which guy is that, Clone? 

[Sanguine]

Oh, it IS true. As will most Cruz and Kasich supporters once Trump is the nominee. Its only the fringe nutjobs, and the establishment insiders who fear losing power who will shift to Hillary or won't vote.

So, those were just crocodile tears?

[musiclady]

Oh, it IS true. As will most Cruz and Kasich supporters once Trump is the nominee. Its only the fringe nutjobs, and the establishment insiders who fear losing power who will shift to Hillary or won't vote.

You left out one large group........... people who won't vote for Progressives and Liberals to be President.

You know, the ones with principles that don't blow around in the wind?  Who don't like insider donor class candidates like Trump OR insider political class candidates like Hillary?

And perhaps the people who hate the Establishment the most and don't want make it stronger with either Trump or Hillary??

Kind of a big omission there, Clone.

[Mesaclone]

Which guy is that, Clone?

You don't know which guy you supported?

[Mesaclone]

You left out one large group........... people who won't vote for Progressives and Liberals to be President.

Oh. You're referring to the ones who won't vote for Progressives and Liberals, but who will through their inaction allow the worst of them all...Hillary Clinton...to become President. You're right, I left them out, because they are a miniscule number of people who's pride outweighs their common sense, and as such they can't be expected to do either what's right or what's effective. Such people can't be persuaded because their position is grounded in "feelings" and anger in particular...they are, as I said, hurt over their guy losing and so will throw the country to the wolves.

[Sanguine]

You don't know which guy you supported?

No, the guy I'm supporting hasn't lost.  So, it made me curious as to who you were referring to.