NY Never Mattered, Cruz Won the Presidency

[libertybele]

New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency

The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.

 Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.   

Whats left now?

California 172
Indiana 57
New Jersey 51
Washington 44
Maryland 38
Nebraska 36
West Virginia 34
South Dakota 29
Connecticut 28
Oregon 28
Montana 27
New Mexico 24
Rhode Island 19
Pennsylvania 17 +54

Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.

He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump... These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.

Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.

Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.

In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.

Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.

Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on.
One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.

However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.

Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.

Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote):
Oregon 28
Oklahoma 43
California (projected) 100
South Dakota 29
Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54
Arkansas 40
Kansas 40
Kentucky 46
Montana 27

The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.

This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.

The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.

Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.

So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.

Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.

http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/20/new-york-never-mattered-ted-cruz-won-presidency/

[Bill Cipher]

I think the end-game for Cruz has been an open convention for at least the past few months.  That would explain why his team has been spending so much time digging into the process of choosing the individuals who will actually fill the available delegate spots.

[Wingnut]

I think the end-game for Cruz has been an open convention for at least the past few months.  That would explain why his team has been spending so much time digging into the process of choosing the individuals who will actually fill the available delegate spots.

I agree.  If Trump has an Achilles' heel it is his lack of political experience and hiring JV team to manage his campaign.

[libertybele]

I think the end-game for Cruz has been an open convention for at least the past few months.  That would explain why his team has been spending so much time digging into the process of choosing the individuals who will actually fill the available delegate spots.

Because the GOP playing field had so many candidates to begin with, there was talk of a convention then ... I believe Cruz has planned on this for quite some time.  As I have stated before, do not under estimate Cruz.

[Frank Cannon]

These numbers made sense to everyone last week. Just because Trump did what everyone thought he would do in NY the rest of the Primary changes? Hell, Trump isn't even campaigning in half od these upcoming states and one he is is totally worthless for delegates (PA).

[A-Lert]

Cruz got schlonged in New York. Being shut out in a state with that many delegates does indeed matter.

[libertybele]

Cruz got schlonged in New York. Being shut out in a state with that many delegates does indeed matter.

Trump won his home state which was expected and certainly, if Trump didn't take his home state that would have been quite an embarrassment.  No different than Trump being schlonged in TX where Cruz took 104 delegates.

Of course Trump got a boost from NY -- whether he can get to the magic number of 1237 though still remains to be seen.

[Frank Cannon]

Cruz got schlonged in New York. Being shut out in a state with that many delegates does indeed matter.

It doesn't mean a load of cow crap for Cruz. It does mean a lot to Trump that the only state he can point to that he broke 50% in is a Liberal Rat wasteland that the GOP will never win in a General. Also if you were even mildly educated you would have noticed that Trump had absolutely no coat tails in the Special Election. I am sure delegates and GOP Party officials didn't overlook that small fact.

BTW, Trump lost where all the GOP money men are in NY state. Think that went unnoticed as well?

[Frank Cannon]

Trump won his home state which was expected and certainly, if Trump didn't take his home state that would have been quite an embarrassment.  No different than Trump being schlonged in TX where Cruz took 104 delegates.

Of course Trump got a boost from NY -- whether he can get to the magic number of 1237 though still remains to be seen.

It should also be noticed that Bernie Sanders, the losing Rat candidate in that Primary got significantly MORE votes than Donny.

Some big win.

[A-Lert]

Trump won his home state which was expected and certainly, if Trump didn't take his home state that would have been quite an embarrassment.  No different than Trump being schlonged in TX where Cruz took 104 delegates.

Of course Trump got a boost from NY -- whether he can get to the magic number of 1237 though still remains to be seen.

Trump wasn't shut out in Texas.

[A-Lert]

It doesn't mean a load of cow crap for Cruz. It does mean a lot to Trump that the only state he can point to that he broke 50% in is a Liberal Rat wasteland that the GOP will never win in a General. Also if you were even mildly educated you would have noticed that Trump had absolutely no coat tails in the Special Election. I am sure delegates and GOP Party officials didn't overlook that small fact.

BTW, Trump lost where all the GOP money men are in NY state. Think that went unnoticed as well?

That is Lehman Bros./Kasich country. You do know that, don't you?  Heidi's employment history didn't do it for Ted.

Ted couldn't pull 50% in his home state.

[A-Lert]

It should also be noticed that Bernie Sanders, the losing Rat candidate in that Primary got significantly MORE votes than Donny.

Some big win.

How many Republican delegates did Bernie win? 

[Right_in_Virginia]

It doesn't mean a load of cow crap for Cruz. It does mean a lot to Trump that the only state he can point to that he broke 50% in is a Liberal Rat wasteland . . . /

[Free Vulcan]

Awesome article that'll make the Trumpets take their stroke meds.

[geronl]

PA will be tough. CA will be tougher than we think too.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Did you swipe that from the Huffington post?

When the GOP scorns my faith like a rat, it is time to give up on this nation.

[R4 TrumPence]

As a member of TBR, not an owner, I must tell you, this article is redstate, a Cruz supporter, just as Cruz supporters brush off breitbart and gateway.
So I wouldn't get too excited abt this article.
You guys really need to take a deep breath and decide how you really feel.
Listening to Reince today and tonight, there will not be second ballot.
Unless something unforseen at this time happens, Trump will be the GOP nominee.
Right now, I have no doubt about it.
But, I am also OK, should some divine intervention happen and I have to vote for Cruz, while highly unlikely, but have no problem with it, given what can happen with the DEM's.

I would also bet that none of the Trump supporters here would sit out and not vote for Cruz.
The time is coming when friends here need to decide what is more important... Sticking together, or bickering forever!

THIS IS JUST MY THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS. NOT THE GENERAL OPINONS OF TBR

[Bill Cipher]

As a member of TBR, not an owner, I must tell you, this article is redstate, a Cruz supporter, just as Cruz supporters brush off breitbart and gateway.
So I wouldn't get too excited abt this article.
You guys really need to take a deep breath and decide how you really feel.
Listening to Reince today and tonight, there will not be second ballot.
Unless something unforseen at this time happens, Trump will be the GOP nominee.
Right now, I have no doubt about it.
But, I am also OK, should some divine intervention happen and I have to vote for Cruz, while highly unlikely, but have no problem with it, given what can happen with the DEM's.

I would also bet that none of the Trump supporters here would sit out and not vote for Cruz.
The time is coming when friends here need to decide what is more important... Sticking together, or bickering forever!

THIS IS JUST MY THOUGHTS AND OPINIONS. NOT THE GENERAL OPINONS OF TBR

Consider how many serious TBR members you've already lost, not because they've left TBR, but because they have already said publicly they will never vote for Trump, even in the general.  I'm not talking about myself, sinkspur, wingnut, or JazzHead, although I would point out that you have lost us as well, but the quiet thinkers like cuky, Once-ler, NavyCanDo, Bigun, Abaraxas, Luis Gonzalez, Landolincoln (I think), and probably others I can't name.  It should be raising all sorts of alarm bells and red flags that so many committed, serious, thoughtful republicans have already said point blank they won't vote for Trump in the general election.  They are all principled people and I rather doubt you're going to buffalo them into going against their basic principles with bogeyman-under-the-bed stories about what will happen if Trump is not elected.  And if you have already lost so many deeply-committed republicans, just imagine how many Sunday-only republicans you have already lost, how many more you will lose by November, and in particular how many non-republicans will never consider voting for the GOP in the first place.  Both Romney and McCain had higher positives than Trump this early in the election and even they lost.

Wise, thoughtful people would not be so blithely ignoring those alarm bells and red flags as are the Trump people.

Danger Will Robinson!  Danger! 

Face facts:  you have lost already.  If there isn't a second ballot, Trump loses in November.  If there is a second ballot, Trump loses in July.  The question isn't whether Trump's campaign is dead, it is; the question is when will the body fall and will it drag down the country as well. 

[Right_in_Virginia]

When the GOP scorns my faith like a rat, it is time to give up on this nation. 

Gee, when you anti-Trump people proclaim I belong to the "Church of Trump", are you scorning MY faith?   

Lighten up.

[libertybele]

Consider how many serious TBR members you've already lost, not because they've left TBR, but because they have already said publicly they will never vote for Trump, even in the general.  I'm not talking about myself, sinkspur, wingnut, or JazzHead, although I would point out that you have lost us as well, but the quiet thinkers like cuky, Once-ler, NavyCanDo, Bigun, Abaraxas, Luis Gonzalez, Landolincoln (I think), and probably others I can't name.  It should be raising all sorts of alarm bells and red flags that so many committed, serious, thoughtful republicans have already said point blank they won't vote for Trump in the general election.  They are all principled people and I rather doubt you're going to buffalo them into going against their basic principles with bogeyman-under-the-bed stories about what will happen if Trump is not elected.  And if you have already lost so many deeply-committed republicans, just imagine how many Sunday-only republicans you have already lost, how many more you will lose by November, and in particular how many non-republicans will never consider voting for the GOP in the first place.  Both Romney and McCain had higher positives than Trump this early in the election and even they lost.

Wise, thoughtful people would not be so blithely ignoring those alarm bells and red flags as are the Trump people.

Danger Will Robinson!  Danger! 

Face facts:  you have lost already.  If there isn't a second ballot, Trump loses in November.  If there is a second ballot, Trump loses in July.  The question isn't whether Trump's campaign is dead, it is; the question is when will the body fall and will it drag down the country as well.

 :beer        You make an excellent point; "Face facts:  you have lost already.  If there isn't a second ballot, Trump loses in November.  If there is a second ballot, Trump loses in July.  The question isn't whether Trump's campaign is dead, it is; the question is when will the body fall and will it drag down the country as well. "

[Jazzhead]

If there isn't a second ballot, Trump loses in November.  If there is a second ballot, Trump loses in July.  The question isn't whether Trump's campaign is dead, it is; the question is when will the body fall and will it drag down the country as well.

That's it in a nutshell, BC.   That's the choice we face.   The question isn't whether Trump will be President - he won't.  The question is whether the next President will be Hillary Clinton or a conservative.   There's still time to reject Trumpism in July, and give us a puncher's chance at the Presidency.   But nominating Trump will be an act of suicide, and the dishonorable end to the storied Party of Lincoln.   

[libertybele]

That's it in a nutshell, BC.   That's the choice we face.   The question isn't whether Trump will be President - he won't.  The question is whether the next President will be Hillary Clinton or a conservative.   There's still time to reject Trumpism in July, and give us a puncher's chance at the Presidency.   But nominating Trump will be an act of suicide, and the dishonorable end to the storied Party of Lincoln.   

There is still a chance to reject Trumpism provided that he doesn't reach 1237 delegates ... Cruz is doing his darndest to stop him.  Kasich dropping out is the only way to insure that Cruz stops him.  It really is quite unfortunate that Kasich is still in; by convention rules he needs to win a majority in 8 states in order to be qualified for nomination. 

[Jazzhead]

There is still a chance to reject Trumpism provided that he doesn't reach 1237 delegates ... Cruz is doing his darndest to stop him.  Kasich dropping out is the only way to insure that Cruz stops him.  It really is quite unfortunate that Kasich is still in; by convention rules he needs to win a majority in 8 states in order to be qualified for nomination.

I respectfully disagree with you about Kasich,  but we're on the same side, LB.   If Cruz is the nominee I'll support him.   

[musiclady]

Did you swipe that from the Huffington post?

When the GOP scorns my faith like a rat, it is time to give up on this nation.

It's not the GOP doing the scorning, Once-ler.  It's a very angry, spiteful Trump supporter.

But I have no doubt the origin of that photo was a leftist source.  The left hates Evangelical Christians like you and me. 

Just like this poster apparently does.....

[Lando Lincoln]

...  I'm not talking about myself, sinkspur, wingnut, or JazzHead, although I would point out that you have lost us as well, but the quiet thinkers like cuky, Once-ler, NavyCanDo, Bigun, Abaraxas, Luis Gonzalez, Landolincoln (I think), and probably others I can't name. ...

**No Sanctimony Post Ahead**

Thanks for including me in such company Bill but I am not there yet.  Flippantly, I once said I'd vote for a yellow dog if the Republicans ran the hound against Hillary.  I am absolutely certain of the harm a Hillary (or Bernie) presidency would do to the country.  I will likely hold out hope, invoke the Yellow Dog Rule, and vote for DT if he indeed becomes the nominee.  That said, there is abundant time for a chill wind to blow through which would force me to violate that rule (or, to be fair... a gentle zephyr warming me to the idea).

This has been the most unusual process in so many ways and for me personally.  I have never come out FOR anyone.  I liked Walker a lot because, as a Cheesehead exiled in Illinois, I "know" the guy.  He does not flinch.  Having the charisma of an eggplant, the Governor never got any traction and dropped out before I said, "yup, he's my guy".  And then, the DT phenomenon took over who I disdain for many reasons - some rational, some visceral.  And that phenomenon changed the dynamic and altered strategies of the candidates.  I wanted to hear more from Rubio, (yes) Bush, Fiorina, even Christie.  Not that they were the "One", but I was excited to hear their unique perspectives on issues.  But the unforeseen process muted their voices, in my view.  All of us got a bit shortchanged in the crossfire. 

So, here I am - wondering what the hell I'm going to do.  At the moment, there are still things that will take time to play out.  We may, I emphasize may, still be witness to some incredible political drama.  I'm not at all confident that will be a good thing.

**No Sanctimony Post Completed**