Red Alert: Trump below 50 statewide in New York poll

[Frank Cannon]

http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2016/04/15/red-alert-trump-50-statewide-new-york-poll/

Donald Trump is bleeding delegates left and right. Even delegates pledged to him are ending up preferring other candidates. As a result, if he can’t secure a clear first ballot win, he’ll badly lose the runoff election at the convention.

A near-sweep in New York is vital to Trump. Previous polling has already shown obvious regional weaknesses for him outside of the city, but a new poll suggests the floor may be collapsing out from under him.

The new Optimus poll shows Trump ahead, sure. It’s his home state. Like Ted Cruz and John Kasich, he needs to clean up at home. But in this poll, statewide he’s under 50% of the vote. If accurate, this is a disaster for Trump.

Every district where Trump falls below 50%, he loses a delegate. Optimus has him below 50 nearly everywhere outside of New York City. As a result of that, this poll has Trump losing 20 delegates to John Kasich and Ted Cruz, according to Phil Kerpen.

The way this works is that New York’s districts only will give all three delegates to the winner, if the winner gets a full 50% of the vote. Otherwise, the delegates are handed out proportionate to the vote. If Trump gets 49% and Kasich or Cruz gets 25%, then Trump gets 2 and Kasich/Cruz gets one. However if Trump can claw up to 50%, then Trump takes all three delegates. As this repeats statewide, it has a huge effect on Trump’s ability to avoid a runoff at the national convention.

The Optimus poll is clearly the worst case scenario for Trump, but now the Overton window has shifted. Donald Trump is fighting for his political life in New York right now. He desperately needs to overperform if he wants the nomination. If Optimus is even close, Trump is toast.

Note that readers of sites like POLITICO are being badly misinformed here. They’re spinning this Optimus poll as good news for Trump, even though the actual primary voting ending up like this poll would doom his candidacy to failure.

[Frank Cannon]

Considering that Trump is bailing on WY this weekend to focus full tilt on NY, his internals must be showing a similar result. WY is 29 delegates and could be a deciding factor in the end.

[libertybele]

Trump will probably take NY; I think that was a given.  If he doesn't take NY that would certainly indicate that Trump is going to have problems getting the 1,237 delegates needed.  I wonder how many rich Muslims are registered as Republicans in NY. 

[massadvj]

Trump will probably take NY; I think that was a given.  If he doesn't take NY that would certainly indicate that Trump is going to have problems getting the 1,237 delegates needed.  I wonder how many rich Muslims are registered as Republicans in NY. 

Trump needs 50 percent or higher in New York, otherwise he loses something like a third of the delegates.

[libertybele]

Trump needs 50 percent or higher in New York, otherwise he loses something like a third of the delegates.

I wasn't aware of that; thanks for the info.

[Free Vulcan]

Good news for Cruz!

[andy58-in-nh]

Political polls, especially surveys drawn from limited samples and offering non-binary choices (A,B,C, none of the above) are notoriously fickle

[Jazzhead]

Trump needs 50 percent or higher in New York, otherwise he loses something like a third of the delegates.

Correct - that's the goal - Kasich and Cruz combined need to keep Trump from a majority, and the path to 1,237 becomes a lot more difficult.   

I remain cautiously optimistic that a majority of NY primary voters will, in the end,  decide not to be fools.   

[Frank Cannon]

Trump needs 50 percent or higher in New York, otherwise he loses something like a third of the delegates.

Bingo. The key to NY is whether he can get over 50% in these districts.

[Jazzhead]

Actually, the poll doesn't look very good for us. Trump is at 48 to 49 percent with 13 percent undecided. He will certainly pick up
the extra percent needed with the undecided. Group this with all other polls and I think New York unfortunately is a sweep for Trump.

#nevertrump  means never

In most past primaries,  the late deciders have broken for candidates other than Trump.   Everyone who hasn't assumed room temperature knows by now who Trump is,  and is either in thrall to his horsespit or recognizes the present danger.   

[Frank Cannon]

Actually, the poll doesn't look very good for us. Trump is at 48 to 49 percent with 13 percent undecided. He will certainly pick up
the extra percent needed with the undecided. Group this with all other polls and I think New York unfortunately is a sweep for Trump.

#nevertrump  means never

This is the guys home state and he is flirting around the 50% mark with days to go. This is a disaster for Trump. He should have locked this state down and gone on to WY, PA and CA hardcore.

[Bill Cipher]

Actually, the poll doesn't look very good for us. Trump is at 48 to 49 percent with 13 percent undecided. He will certainly pick up
the extra percent needed with the undecided. Group this with all other polls and I think New York unfortunately is a sweep for Trump.

#nevertrump  means never

NY cannot be a sweep unless he gets more than 50% in each and every district, or at least in substantially all the districts.  50% statewide alone won't cut it.  It is in fact mathematically possible for Trump to get more than 50% statewide but still get less than half the delegates if his support is limited to 90% to 100% of only a few districts. 

[Bill Cipher]

Trump needs 50 percent or higher in New York, otherwise he loses something like a third of the delegates.

Actually, depending on the extent to which is support is concentrated in a few districts, it is mathematically possible for him to get more than 50% on a statewide basis but still get less than half the total delegates.  Winning statewide only gets him a lock on 14 out of 95 delegates. 

For NY to count as a win for Trump he needs a smashing win, and that is going to require that he win by more than a plurality in half the districts and by a plurality in the others.  I'm not sure he can carry that off.

[sinkspur]

Considering that Trump is bailing on WY this weekend to focus full tilt on NY, his internals must be showing a similar result. WY is 29 delegates and could be a deciding factor in the end.

Trump doesn't have any "internals."  He has no pollsters.  He relies completely on public polls for his information.

[Wingnut]

In most past primaries,  the late deciders have broken for candidates other than Trump.   Everyone who hasn't assumed room temperature knows by now who Trump is,  and is either in thrall to his horsespit or recognizes the present danger.   

Clinton has the "Room Tempature" votes locked up.  But I do hope the late deciders can help drive a wooden stake into that cracker croackers heart and chip away at his number of delegates.

[A-Lert]

If accurate, this is a disaster for Trump.

Why would the poster  or pollster say, "if accurate"? 

[A-Lert]

This is the guys home state and he is flirting around the 50% mark with days to go. This is a disaster for Trump. He should have locked this state down and gone on to WY, PA and CA hardcore.

Cruz didn't win 50% of his home state, did he?

[R4 TrumPence]

Cruz didn't win 50% of his home state, did he?

No 43.??% in TX

[HonestJohn]

Nothing to see here.  Trump's polls show he has 66% of the vote.

Why, it's such a lock that I doubt his supporter actual need to bother themselves with actually voting.  It's 'in the bag'.

 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Was listening to Rush this afternoon (bad habit, I know) he was saying that NY's policy is actually if you get 50% above in each district then you take all in each district only? In other words, Trump could get over 50% in the state and still not take all the delegates. As each district is the same delegates, no matter what the population is in the district, that would mean you could get over 50% of vote in NY (because of a highly populous area like NYC might go for Trump, and little support elsewhere) and still not get he majority of the delegates for the entire state? Because some areas like NY state like upstate may vote for Cruz either all the way or just enough to keep Donald from reaching 50% in that district?

I went cross-eyed just thinking about it.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Tuesday 19 April 2016: All 95 of New York's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's New York Presidential Primary. [Rules of the New York Republican State Committee. Article XI. Rule 1.]

81 district delegates are bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 27 congressional districts. Each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates who are slated by the Presidential candidates prior to the primary. In each district:
If a candidate receives more than 50% or only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 3 delegates.
Otherwise, if at least 2 presidential contenders receive 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate with the second most of votes receives 1 delegate.
Otherwise, if no presidential contender receives 20% or more of the vote, the party will elect 3 delegates without considering the results of the primary.
14 At-Large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are bound to presidential contenders "winner-take-most" based on the statewide primary results. 11 of these delegates (the 10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates) are elected at the state committee meeting.
If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 14 delegates.
Otherwise, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Round fractions to the nearest whole number. If too few delegates are allocated, the candidate receiving the largest vote receives those the remaining delegates. If too many delegates are allocated, subtract those delegates from the candidate(s) who met the threshold but had the smallest number of votes.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R

So there you go. Even if Donald gets over 50% in NY state, he may not get all the delegates, if they're all bunched up into a few districts.