http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/02/24/why-donald-trump-has-a-90-percent-chance-of-winning-the-republican-nomination/New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. We have always been bullish on a Trump nomination. Indeed, in September, we gave Trump a 45 percent chance of being nominated. Today, less than a week before Super Tuesday, we give Trump a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican Party nomination based on the available evidence.
Here’s why.
First, Trump leads in almost all polls — both at the national and state levels. Of the 19 national polls conducted since the Feb. 2 Iowa caucuses, 18 show Trump in the lead. This is very telling; indeed, if we take each of these polls as a proxy for the primary, Trump has a 95 percent chance of winning the nomination. This simple count holds up when looking at the limited state level polling as well. Take Marco Rubio’s home state of Florida, for instance: to date, all the polls have shown Trump in the lead, with Rubio only a distant second. Of all the state polls conducted since the South Carolina primary (14 by our count), Trump wins in 11 of them, or about an 80 percent chance of winning
This is all very strong evidence of the eventuality of a Trump nomination. Second, contrary to pundit belief, Trump has not lost ground since Jeb Bush bowed out. A recurring argument is that Trump won’t be able to get more than 35 percent of Republican party votes, and that once the weaker candidates exit, stronger names like Rubio and Ted Cruz will only gain ground relative to Trump. However, our data does not bear this out. The polling actually shows the reverse trend — the majority of voters citing Trump as their choice when the list is narrowed down to Trump, Cruz and Rubio.
