http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/127154/hotlines-2016-senate-rankings?mref=home_bottom_small_1 Kyle Trygstad, Andrea Drusch, Alex Roarty and Josh Kraushaar
December 27, 2015
The question is not whether Democrats will pick up Senate seats next year, it is almost certainly how many. With the election year upon us, a two-seat gain appears highly likely, while any more than that still falls closer to possible on the competitive spectrum of 2016 races.
It’s that gray area where the Senate majority will be decided: The races for the seats of 2010 classmates Kelly Ayotte, Pat Toomey, and Rob Portman, along with the seat left vacant by Marco Rubio. All three Republican incumbents have tangible political strengths, but they’re either facing a challenger with a statewide victory on the resume or are running in a state that votes reliably Democratic in presidential years—or both.
If Democrats win in Illinois and Wisconsin, as expected, the party would need to add just two of those four seats if it also retains the White House, giving the vice president the tie-breaking vote. The party would need a total net gain of five seats if Republicans win the presidency.
This is our list of the most 12 most competitive Senate races, ranked in order of most likely to flip party control. It’s a mirror image of the previous cycle, with Republicans now represented heavily at the top.
Democrats can thank a disastrous 2010 cycle for that. And while the national mood ahead of the election cannot be known, down-ballot Democrats will have presidential-level turnout on their side, making it all the harder for Republicans running in blue states to cross over enough voters backing the Democratic presidential nominee.
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