Can Rand Paul's CPAC straw poll win streak be stopped?

[mystery-ak]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/234211-can-pauls-straw-poll-streak-be-stopped

February 28, 2015, 06:12 am
Can Rand Paul's CPAC straw poll win streak be stopped?
By Cameron Joseph

Rand Paul’s likely White House foes are looking to end his Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll hot streak.

The Kentucky senator is still the frontrunner to win the annual measure of grassroots support after claiming victory for the past two years.

But how deep other potential rivals — most notably Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — cut into his support will show who is on the rise in the 2016 GOP field.
“Every year serious candidates come to CPAC and organize and get people to come here for the specific purpose of voting for them in the straw poll,” said Citizens United President David Bossie. “Does it at the end of the day really mean anything that you can have the money and an organization to bus people in? Probably, because that means you have money and an organization. It's important.”

The establishment-minded Bush bused in hundreds of supporters to show strength in the convention space and at the straw poll ballot box, while rising star Walker had plenty of vocal backers in the building as well.

Like his father, former Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) before him, the younger Paul has dominated the younger, libertarian-leaning event in recent years. This year was no different, and his allies made a visible push to keep his hot streak alive at an annual rite of passage for GOP candidates.

The poll itself has long drawn criticism that it’s just a test of who is the conservative flavor of the week or who’s willing to spend money to bus in supporters, and a list of previous winners suggests that holds some truth. For every Mitt Romney, Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush who won the straw poll there’s a Gary Bauer, Rudy Giuliani, George Allen, Steve Forbes and Phil Gramm who flamed out badly or never ran.

“It’s about stacking the deck,” former Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) said, rolling his eyes at the prospect of another Paul victory.

That mix of establishment favorites who paid to pack the house to in and conservative firebrands who caught the imaginations of the crowd is evidence there are different paths to victory.

Bossie predicted Paul would win once again — but said strong showings by other likely White House contenders could be a good sign for their long-term chances.

“You don't have to win the straw poll. You want to be seen as serious,” he said. “You're going to see guys like Scott Walker who didn't have an organization coming here because he wasn't really planning on coming here in a big way. This is new for him. I'm very interested in seeing where Scott Walker is at the end of the day. Where Jeb Bush falls will be interesting.”

Both organizing supporters and giving a well-received speech are keys to performing well.

“Those who win the straw poll traditionally have delivered a strong performance at CPAC but also fill the room with people who believe in them,” said GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway, who is running the straw poll. “You can convert or persuade some in the audience, but it's also the legwork that's been done up to that moment in filling a room with your supporters.”

Paul’s supporters were out in force to cheer him on Friday with throngs of backers wearing "Stand with Rand" buttons to cheer him on.

Members of a libertarian group Young Americans for Liberty said they’d brought in hundreds of Paul supporters from all over the East Coast, and some said they took full advantage of a glitch in the electronic voting system allowed them to choose Paul as both their first and second choices.

Paul will also likely draw big support from members of the Leadership Institute, a libertarian-leaning nonprofit and CPAC sponsor that trains young grassroots conservatives and had a large presence at the event.

Bush made a big push as well, busing hundreds of supporters in from Georgetown and K Street in Washington, D.C. and paying for their costly entrance tickets to make sure he had friendly faces in the crowd and a decent showing in the poll. He didn’t appear on last year’s ballot.

And while Walker didn’t seem to be making any noticeable organizational push to win, there was a palpable excitement from the activist base about his speech that could push him to a strong showing. He tied for fifth with seven percent last year.

Bush and Walker aren't the only candidates to watch Saturday night.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) finished a distant second to Paul last year and gave another rousing speech, but once again showed no organizational effort.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) nearly beat Paul two years ago, but fell to seventh last year during his immigration reform push, which he spent much of his appearance explaining on Friday in a well-received speech. But Rubio's team had no visible efforts at CPAC.

Others who gave strong speeches, like businesswoman Carly Fiorina and neurosurgeon Ben Carson, could build momentum with strong showings in the contest.

And whether the poll has much long-term predictive value, its winner gets a slew of helpful headlines.

“It's not determinative but it's not nothing,” said Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist, who sits on the board of the group that organizes CPAC. “It'll be in the newspaper the next day.”

[mystery-ak]

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/02/28/report-jeb-bush-attempting-to-buy-cpac-straw-poll-with-bused-in-supporters/

REPORT: JEB BUSH ATTEMPTING TO RIG CPAC STRAW POLL WITH BUSED IN SUPPORTERS

by MATTHEW BOYLE28 Feb 2015Washington, DC

NATIONAL HARBOR, Maryland — Perhaps in fear that he didn’t have enough backers willing to show up on their own, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s campaign organized to bus supporters to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) to cheer during his appearance on stage and vote for him in the straw poll.

The New York Times’ Jonathan Martin writes that Bush brought people in from Washington, D.C.: “Mr. Bush’s supporters organized caravans of his Washington backers to attend his speech, and they cheered whenever anyone else booed,” Martin wrote.

Those same bused in cheerers also will likely be expected by Bush’s campaign to vote for him in the famed straw poll.

Betsy Woodruff at the liberal outlet Slate also obtained emails that prove Bush’s team was busing in supporters from K Street.

“Emails provided to Slate show that backers of the former Florida governor are busing supporters from downtown Washington D.C. to CPAC in National Harbor, Maryland, and organizing to get them day passes into the event,” Woodruff wrote.

One person behind the effort to bus in Bush backers, Woodruff confirmed, was former George W. Bush advance man Fritz Brogan. “A Bush insider confirmed to Slate that Bush’s Right to Rise PAC is helping organize the transportation,” Woodruff wrote.

Three other potential GOP presidential campaigns told Breitbart News that they expect nothing less from Bush’s campaign, since he doesn’t have real conservative support.

“It comes as no surprise that the Bushies would try to rig the CPAC straw poll. Jeb, like his father and brother, is strongly disliked and distrusted by the Base,” one said.

Trying to rig the CPAC straw poll “is a cynical effort by Bush’s establishment campaign to attempt to build some conservative bona fides where none exist,” a second rival presidential effort staffer told Breitbart News. “Since they don’t have legitimate conservative support they have to pay for it in a transparent AstroTurf effort.”

“This shows one thing: Jeb Bush’s base is D.C. insiders and lobbyists,” an operative for a third potential GOP presidential rival said. “He has to bus them everywhere he goes. They are his only hope, that they can buy him this election every step of the way. True conservatives need to stand up and fight back.”

Before CPAC, when asked if Bush’s supporters would be paid and bused in, Bush spokeswoman Kristy Campbell denied it flatly. She said in an email that she “can confirm that we are not trying to play in the straw poll – despite what anyone else is telling you.”

Campbell, Bush’s spokeswoman, told Breitbart News on Saturday afternoon: “We aren’t trying to play in the straw poll. Some supporters in the DC area who were planning to attend CPAC expressed concerns about getting over to the Gaylord. We helping by providing some limited transportation on Friday only (specific to the time of the Governor’s speech.)”

[libertybele]

Rand Paul isn't a bad candidate and I certainly would vote for him over any RINO or liberal, but it's his stance on foreign policy that is his big drawback; although that seems to be changing ever so slowly.  As we get closer to candidates announcing their run for the presidency, I think he is going to surprise many; especially Jebro Bush.

..."Paul tamped down his famous skepticism of military adventures, and replaced it with the more conventionally muscular rhetoric of Cold War conservatism. “Without question, we must now defend ourselves and American interests,” he said, in comments about the fighters with the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS). When it came to the question of federal spending, he added, “for me, the priority is always national defense.”

http://time.com/3726508/cpac-isis-republican-foreign-policy/