http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/johnmcternan1/100287274/you-may-not-want-to-hear-this-but-tony-blair-is-right-about-isil/You may not want to hear this, but Tony Blair is right about ISIL
By John McTernan World Last updated: September 22nd, 2014
Tony Blair is right.
Before you harrumph and turn away, listen to his argument.
It is – in short – that there is a global threat from militant Islamism. That it is spreading – and it is getting worse. And that we must act.
It is clear that there is a fundamental problem with radical Islamism; clear that it is deep; clear that the solutions are not easy or presently to hand; clear that this is the work of a generation, not an election cycle; and clear – most important of all – that this is "our" challenge and not simply "theirs".
There are many who will turn away at this point. Some will think that action, even intervention, will cost lives – on all sides – and they will ask if it is worth it. Others will simply foam at the mouth, shouting "Iraq! Bliar!"
But thoughtful people will read the whole essay and reflect on the analysis of a man whose strategic assessment is rooted in experience:
The views I put forward are of course in part shaped by my experience dealing with this issue as Prime Minister after the terror attack, planned from the training camps of Afghanistan, of September 11th 2001, in which over 3000 innocent people lost their lives on the streets of New York and elsewhere; and the terror attacks in Britain of 7 July 2005 by British born Muslims. But they're equally the product of the last 7 years spent outside official office, in the Middle East every month, seeing and hearing first-hand what is happening there and having the opportunity, without the vastly varied in-tray of a leader in office, to study this phenomenon.
From this derives the most interesting part of the essay, its seven overarching principles:
- Join the Dots. It is One Struggle
- The Problem is Getting Worse, Not Better
- The Challenge is a Spectrum, not Simply a Fringe
- Fight the Fringe; Speak Out against the Spectrum
- Support Modern-minded Muslim Opinion. They Are Our Allies
- East and West Should Work Together
- Education is a Security Issue
Each section is fleshed out with powerful arguments which cannot simply be dismissed, but must be engaged with. The essay also includes this important statement:
Certainly we made mistakes. And for sure our understanding frequently fell short. This is the way of things when new and original threats of great significance arise.
But the most attention has been caught by Blair's statement that we must not take the military option off the table with regard to Isil. It is worth quoting in full:
This is where we get to the rub. We have to fight groups like ISIL. There can be an abundance of diplomacy, all necessary relief of humanitarian suffering, every conceivable statement of condemnation which we can muster, but unless they're accompanied by physical combat, we will mitigate the problem but not overcome it.
Air power is a major component of this to be sure, especially with the new weapons available to us. But – and this is the hard truth – air power alone will not suffice. They can be hemmed in, harried and to a degree contained by air power. But they can't be defeated by it.
If possible, others closer to the field of battle, with a more immediate interest, can be given the weapons and the training to carry the fight; and in some, perhaps many cases, that will work. It may work in the case of ISIL. There is real evidence that now countries in the Middle East are prepared to shoulder responsibility and I accept fully there is no appetite for ground engagement in the West.
But we should not rule it out in the future if it is absolutely necessary. Provided that there is the consent of the population directly threatened and with the broadest achievable alliance, (to which I return below), we have, on occasions, to play our part. To those who say that after the campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, we have no stomach for such a commitment, I would reply the difficulties we encountered there, are in part intrinsic to the nature of the battle being waged. And our capacity and capability to wage the battle effectively are second to none in part because of our experience there.
I could put it differently. When Christians and Yazidis are being crucified, executed and literally butchered, is the best we can say: "Meh."
Intervention is not the whole answer, but nor is it the problem. Radical, militant Islamism is. And as Tony Blair says:
Without a comprehensive strategy, we will face a future marked by conflict and instability across swathes of the world and major acts of terrorism in our own lands.
