2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

Placeholder for 2026 Hurricane discussion, though individual storms impacting Briefers may require their own thread.

All the pundits have their picks out, but I for one have always gone with the tried and true methods of the late Dr.  William Gray of Colorado State.  And from their POV, it is going to be a slightly milder on average year.  Here are the tabular numbers.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Looking at the tropics today....

1. There is a non-tropical low at 30N 60W, moving E slowly..  no problem there
2. ITCZ quiet
3. Strong luster of storms off east coast of Yucatan , but no apparent low forming,
4. Surface wind speeds and patterns strill have that late spring look in the Gulf of America.  Expect no tropical activity for at least for a few days there too,

Unless we see something surprising in the Caribbean, I think we are good for the balance of the week,.

[Wingnut]

Ima planning on NOT breaking out my Kevlar Hurricane screens this year!

[libertybele]

The Super El Nino is lurking and there are differences of opinion on how it is going to impact our weather.

Likely any storm that forms will be stronger because of the Super El Nino, yet Colorado State has reduced the predicted number of storms and hurricanes.

[libertybele]

Ima planning on NOT breaking out my Kevlar Hurricane screens this year!

You can thank us.  We always joked now that we have hurricane impact windows, sliders, and accordion shutters to make it easier to prepare, we won't need them.  Just like our generator -- we had it for over 15 years or so before we needed it.

[catfish1957]

The Super El Nino is lurking and there are differences of opinion on how it is going to impact our weather.

Likely any storm that forms will be stronger because of the Super El Nino, yet Colorado State has reduced the predicted number of storms and hurricanes.

Excellent question...  Here is CSU's take (cut/pasted)

 El Niño Southern Oscillation

At the interannual timescale, the prime driver of Atlantic tropical cyclone variability is generally considered to be El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is driven by changes in ocean temperature in the tropical Pacific, where above average conditions (El Niño) in the Central and Eastern Pacific shift the convective activity in the tropical Pacific eastward, and modify the Walker cell throughout the tropics. The influence of ENSO on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is well documented and is understood to occur mainly through local changes in vertical wind shear: during El Niño (La Niña) conditions, the eastward (westward) shift in convection in the tropical Pacific leads to anomalous upper-level westerlies (easterlies) over the Atlantic, which then increases (decreases) the vertical wind shear, thus decreasing (increasing) tropical cyclone activity.

If you put any weight in this year, their theme is "The Year of the Shear".  And if the worst we deal with is T.S. speed winds,  I think we'll all be happy

[Cyber Liberty]