The United Arab Emirates has announced it will withdraw from OPEC after more than 50 years

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/2049109535726469322

[IsailedawayfromFR]

This is big.

But not as big as if Saudi would have said it.

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/2049132875316949029

[Wingnut]

Well my Bingo card didn't have that on it.

I wonder if the Oil Mafia aka OPEC will respond?

[Smokin Joe]

This allows the UAE to capitalize on higher demand and bypass OPEC production agreement restrictions, provided the Houthis can't stop their tanker stream.
They can bypass the Straits of Hormuz completely.

[catfish1957]

A lot has changed with production dynamics.  When it was formed in the '70's OPEC had 55% of world production.  That's down to 38%, and gradually dwindling due to more difficulty in finding easy oil.  As that number keeps shrinking, its kind of hard to be a cartel, if there are viable alternatives.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

OPEC is splintered as a founding member Venezuela(1960) is sidelined and an early member UAE(1967) is out.

Iran attacking may have been the final straw for UAE as Iran exhibits too much influence within OPEC.

And my experiences in the ME for decades let me know the Gulf States dislike and do not trust each other.

I visited the Partioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait which was carved out by Britain. J.P Getty was awarded the Saudi's 50% mineral interest within its boundaries as it did not wish to deal with the Kuwaitis.

[Smokin Joe]

Well my Bingo card didn't have that on it.

I wonder if the Oil Mafia aka OPEC will respond?

If prices go too high, then the whole renewable thingy gets traction again. The UAE can only get out what will go through a 48 inch pipeline, currently between 1.2-1.8 million BOPD, a little more than the equivalent of Bakken production in North Dakota.

While that could bring prices down a bit, it also diminishes (or has the potential to diminish) demand for Iranian oil, an effect that could continue beyond the current conflict, as well as reduce a sense of urgency that might cause China to intervene in the conflict at any level.
It could be a game-changer if the UAE can push the pipeline flow to max.

Despite that, it cannot completely replace the amount of oil that was going through the Straits of Hormuz.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

A lot has changed with production dynamics.  When it was formed in the '70's OPEC had 55% of world production.  That's down to 38%, and gradually dwindling due to more difficulty in finding easy oil.  As that number keeps shrinking, its kind of hard to be a cartel, if there are viable alternatives.

I believe its share of world's oil has dwindled due to much more oil being found in many places (Guyana, Deepwater, etc.) as well as Russia oil production surges.  None of that is easy oil and the ME remains the preeminent place to produce large, quality, accessible oil at low cost.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

If prices go too high, then the whole renewable thingy gets traction again. The UAE can only get out what will go through a 48 inch pipeline, currently between 1.2-1.8 million BOPD, a little more than the equivalent of Bakken production in North Dakota.

While that could bring prices down a bit, it also diminishes (or has the potential to diminish) demand for Iranian oil, an effect that could continue beyond the current conflict, as well as reduce a sense of urgency that might cause China to intervene in the conflict at any level.
It could be a game-changer if the UAE can push the pipeline flow to max.

Despite that, it cannot completely replace the amount of oil that was going through the Straits of Hormuz.

We'll see if the renewable thing really gets going once again.

If I see a lot of capital thrown that way from the private sector instead of public sector, I'll believe it.

Otherwise, my doubts remain that it can be profitable save in selected areas.

[verga]

We'll see if the renewable thing really gets going once again.

If I see a lot of capital thrown that way from the private sector instead of public sector, I'll believe it.

Otherwise, my doubts remain that it can be profitable save in selected areas.

Renewable energy is it's own worst enemy. Solar cells/systems require aluminum which comes from Bauxite. There are three bauxite mines in the U.S. and Bauxite comes from strip mining and the chemical process to make the cells generates all sorts of  chemical pollutants that can get into the water supply.
Wind turbines require literally tons of steel and concrete to support them. The towers being a minimum of 120 feet tall (or above water level for those in the ocean). The blades are between 90 and 120 feet long and are made from resins compounds and have an average life expectancy of 25 years. That is great the problem is how do you dispose of them. Most landfills won't take them since are so large and they require special diamond blades to cut them. they can't be cut up and reused to make other blades any other product at this time. There is also the issue of bird deaths and the noise pollution they generate and lets not forget the NIMBY factor.
Tidal systems are only about 10-15% efficient, they require miles of shore line tha no one wants to give up due to aesthetics as well as recreational and commercial boating. Hydro Dams bring their own environmental issues and there are limits to where they can be placed from a practical distribution stand point.