ERCOT Warns of Explosive Load Growth Driven by Data Centers

[Elderberry]

Texas Scorecard By Sydnie Henry April 16, 2026

The preliminary long-term forecast demands more than four times the current all‑time peak load.

The state’s grid operator is projecting a surge in electricity demand over the next decade—driven largely by data centers, crypto mining, and new industrial facilities. The quasi-governmental agency is urging state regulators to pay attention to both the scale of the boom and the uncertainty baked into early projections.

In a filing to the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC), the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) submitted its preliminary Long‑Term Load Forecast for 2026–2032, along with new data on “Large Load” requests from transmission and distribution utilities.

The numbers show potential peak demand in the ERCOT region climbing from today’s record 85,508 MW to about 278,003 MW by 2029, and then 367,790 MW by 2032. The forecast is based on a high‑growth scenario that includes large industrial and data‑center projects.

ERCOT’s forecast includes several layers of demand growth including base economic growth, electric vehicle adoption, customer‑owned solar adoption, crypto load at existing facilities, and ramping of already‑operational large loads.

That baseline alone pushes peak demand into the 100‑110 GW range over the next several years.

On top of that, ERCOT added new “Medium” (25–74.9 MW) and “Large” (75+ MW) loads submitted by transmission and distribution service providers (TDSPs) through a new large load request for information process tied to the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan.

When those medium and large loads are included, ERCOT’s aggregate “Forecast + Large Loads + Medium Loads” bar reaches roughly 278,003 MW by 2029 and 367,790 MW by 2032. That is more than four times the current all‑time peak.

An attachment to ERCOT’s filing breaks out where that new demand is coming from. By load type, the TDSP submissions include:

•   Non crypto data centers:

o   Rising to about 228,420 MW of large data center load by 2032 in the transmission providers’ requests.

•   Crypto mining:

o   Climbing into the several thousand MW range, reaching around 9,076 MW by 2032.

•   Industrial projects, hydrogen/e fuels, and oil & gas (refining, production, processing):

o   Adding multiple gigawatts more of large load demand across the forecast period.

More: https://texasscorecard.com/state/ercot-warns-of-explosive-load-growth-driven-by-data-centers/

[Idiot]

They are building 3 AI facilities around my little town with one of them being the world's largest.  It's ruining our town, from crime, housing rates have been driven through the roof, local functions have been canceled due to no motel rooms, not to mention 20-30,000 new temporary residents who most don't speak english.  Heck a friend's family needed to come in for a funeral and the closest motel was 45 miles away and they wanted $800 a night.  They are hauling thousands and thousands of loads of crushed rock to them.  These rock trucks are causing accident after accident with multiple deaths.  It's just a disaster...  We don't have enough water to supply all of these needs, plus our electricity rates will likely skyrocket.  I have no doubt that our city father's are the only ones benefitting.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

about damn time that ERCOT is worried about reliability of the grid.

Where were they 5 years ago when the grid collapsed during that cold snap?

Oh, yeah, they were busy approving more unreliable windmills for the grid instead of doing their primary job