What needs to happen for regime change in Iran
One critical element is still missing.
Joseph Puder | January 13, 2026
The Iranian people remember 2009, when, during massive demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere in the country, the masses cried out, “Obama are you with us or with them?,” referring to the ayatollahs’ regime. President Obama ignored the demonstrators and essentially backed the repressive theocracy. Today, in the midst of the current demonstrations, the current president is much more sympathetic to the Iranian demonstrators than Obama was. But although President Trump’s verbal support is comforting to the Iranian demonstrators, it is not enough.
A kinetic operation by the United States or Israel might help bring down the regime, especially if the supreme leader and Islamic Republic leadership are eliminated and there is no damage incurred by the wider population and civil infrastructure. Such a scenario might also unite many more Iranians than those currently mobilized in the streets. Although Iranians generally resent foreign intervention, many cheered the Israeli attack on Iran last June.
Clearly, the majority of Iranians want change. Regrettably, the opposition forces who seek to bring down the ayatollahs’ regime are diffused. The political opposition to the regime in the diaspora is split, and the domestic opposition is largely in prison and harshly repressed. The only effective way to bring down the regime would be to split the security services and have the deserters join the opposition. Such a situation would provide the defenseless demonstrators with potentially armed men. There is also a remote possibility that elements within the Islamic Republic seek change.
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