These five key dynamics will drive precious metals prices in 2026 – CME GroupWhile cyclical tailwinds pushed gold and silver to new all-time highs in 2025, this year’s outlook for precious metals will be determined by evolving asset correlations and physical fundamentals, according to analysts at CME Group.
In their new Precious Metals Outlook published on Thursday, CME Group analysts outlined the five key themes whose dynamics will drive the performance of precious metals in 2026.
The first of these is continued central bank demand. “Official sector activity has transitioned from sporadic purchasing to a trend of consistent accumulation,” they wrote. “Following significant net purchases in 2024 and 2025, central bank demand is likely to continue being a relevant structural factor in the global gold market.”
The analysts pointed to “a broader strategy amongst monetary institutions to diversify foreign exchange reserves,” citing the 2025 survey of central bankers from the World Gold Council that showed the majority of respondents expected a higher share of gold reserves and lower U.S. dollar holdings in five years, with 95% expecting global central bank gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months.
“Because these purchases are often strategic and longer-term in nature, they contribute to a more diversified market structure,” they wrote. “The persistent presence of these institutional holders adds depth to the overall marketplace, distinct from the patterns often seen in short-term trading flows or price-elastic jewelry demand.”................
...............The CME's second key theme for 2026 is the breakdown in the longstanding correlation between gold and real yields.
“A notable feature of the 2025 market was gold’s record setting move during periods of elevated real yields,” the analysts said. “Historically, these two metrics have shared a strong inverse correlation, meaning that gold rallied when real yield weakened, and vice-versa. The recent divergence suggests that while the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold remains a factor, it is currently being outweighed by other variables, such as geopolitical hedging and sovereign diversification.”..................
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-01-08/these-five-key-dynamics-will-drive-precious-metals-prices-2026-cme-group
