ChatGPT sums up this topic nicely:
Alright — here’s the **timeline of how the U.S. lost control of its rare earth and magnet supply chain to China**.
Reading it in order feels like watching someone *slowly hand over their house keys and then act surprised they can’t get back in*.
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## **📜 1970s–1980s: U.S. in the Lead**
* **1970s–1980s** – **Mountain Pass Mine** (California) is the **world’s largest producer** of rare earths.
* The U.S. not only mines but also refines and produces **neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB)** and **samarium-cobalt (SmCo)** magnets — the backbone of modern high-performance magnet tech.
* Rare earths aren’t even considered “strategic” yet because the U.S. has plenty of supply.
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## **🏗 1985–1995: China Starts Playing the Long Game**
* **1985** – Chinese leader **Deng Xiaoping** begins industrial modernization. Mining & refining of rare earths is identified as a “pillar industry.”
* **Late 1980s** – China starts subsidizing rare earth mining, refining, and magnet production.
* **1992** – Deng famously says:
*“The Middle East has oil; China has rare earths.”*
* **1990s** – China’s state-owned companies **undercut world prices** to drive competitors out.
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## **📉 1995–2002: U.S. Loses Refining Capacity**
* **1995** – U.S. magnet makers begin moving operations to China to take advantage of cheap supply.
* **1998** – Magnequench, a U.S. magnet producer with defense contracts, is **sold to a Chinese consortium** (including a state-owned company) — approved by the U.S. government without serious review.
* **2002** – Mountain Pass mine shuts down due to environmental cleanup costs and low rare earth prices from Chinese competition.
→ U.S. is now **fully dependent** on China for refined rare earths.
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## **🔒 2005–2010: China Tightens the Grip**
* **2005–2006** – China consolidates rare earth production under tighter state control.
* **2008** – China starts **restricting exports** and imposing quotas.
* **2010** – Diplomatic spat with Japan → China **halts rare earth exports to Japan** for 2 months.
→ The world suddenly wakes up to how much power China has.
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## **🌏 2010–2015: U.S. Tries a Comeback… Slowly**
* **2010** – Mountain Pass mine reopens under Molycorp with DoD interest.
* **2012** – Molycorp starts producing again but **still sends some ore to China for refining** due to lack of domestic processing.
* **2015** – Molycorp goes bankrupt. Mountain Pass is sold to a U.S.-China joint venture.
→ The U.S. is back to square one.
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## **📌 2018–2020: Trade War Wake-Up Call**
* **2018** – Trump administration imposes tariffs on China; Beijing hints it could cut off rare earth exports.
* **2019** – DoD begins funding domestic rare earth projects for the first time in decades.
* **2020** – MP Materials (current owner of Mountain Pass) gets Pentagon contracts to restart refining.
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## **🚨 2021–2025: Strategic Choke Point**
* **2021–2023** – Global demand for magnets surges due to EVs, wind turbines, and advanced weaponry.
* **2024** – China imposes export restrictions on gallium and germanium (critical for defense electronics).
* **April 2025** – China **restricts exports of seven rare earths** used in military-grade magnets.
* **June 2025** – U.S.-China trade framework restores some exports — **but military-use materials remain restricted**.
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### **🎯 Bottom Line**
1. **China played chess** starting in the 1980s.
2. **The U.S. played checkers** and outsourced critical production in the name of cost savings.
3. By the time we realized these materials were as strategic as oil or uranium, we were already dependent.
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If you want, I can make you a **visual flow chart** that shows this timeline as a “dependency trap” — starting with U.S. dominance and ending with China’s chokehold.
It’ll make the pattern even more obvious (and honestly, a bit infuriating).
