United States nuclear weapons, 2025
By Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight-Boyle | January 13, 2025
The United States has embarked on a wide-ranging nuclear modernization program that will ultimately see every nuclear delivery system replaced with newer versions over the coming decades. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that the United States maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,700 warheads—an unchanged estimate from the previous year. Of these, only about 1,770 warheads are deployed, while approximately 1,930 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,477 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,177 nuclear warheads. Of the approximately 1,770 warheads that are deployed, 400 are on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, roughly 970 are on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 are at bomber bases in the United States, and approximately 100 tactical bombs are at European bases. The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: director Hans M. Kristensen, associate director Matt Korda, and senior research associates Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight.
This article is freely available in PDF format in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ digital magazine (published by Taylor & Francis) at this link. To cite this article, please use the following citation, adapted to the appropriate citation style: Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight. 2025. “United States nuclear weapons, 2025.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 81(1): 53–79. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2024.2441624To see all previous Nuclear Notebook columns in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists dating back to 1987, go to
https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/.
As of January 2025, we estimate that the US Department of Defense maintained an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads for delivery by ballistic missiles and aircraft. Most of the warheads in the stockpile are not deployed but rather stored for potential upload onto missiles and aircraft as necessary. We estimate that approximately 1,770 warheads are currently deployed, of which roughly 1,370 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles and another 300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States. An additional 100 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. The remaining warheads—approximately 1,930—are in storage as a so-called “hedge” against technical or geopolitical surprises. Several hundred of those warheads are scheduled to be retired before 2030 (see Table 1).
Table 1. United States nuclear forces, 2025. (Click to display full size.)
While the majority of the United States’ warheads comprise the Department of Defense’s military stockpile, retired warheads under the custody of the Department of Energy awaiting dismantlement constitute a “significant fraction” of the United States’ total warhead inventory (US Department of Energy 2024b, F-6). Dismantlement operations include the disassembly of retired weapons into component parts that are then assigned for reuse, storage, surveillance, or for additional disassembly and subsequent disposition (US Department of Energy 2023b, 2–11).
The pace of warhead dismantlement has slowed significantly in recent years: While the United States dismantled on average more than 1,000 warheads per year during the 1990s, in 2023 it dismantled only 69 warheads—the lowest number since the 1990s (National Nuclear Security Administration 2024a). According to the Department of Energy, “[d]ismantlement rates are affected by many factors, including weapon system complexity, availability of qualified personnel, equipment, facilities, logistics, policy and directives, and legislative requirements” (US Department of Energy 2024a, 2–14). The US Department of Energy stated in April 2023 that it “was on pace to complete the dismantlement of all warheads retired before Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 [Sep. 2008] by the end of FY 2022 [Aug. 2022]” but that the COVID-19 pandemic “delayed the dismantlement of a small number of these retired warheads until after FY 2022 [Aug. 2022]” (US Department of Energy 2023a, 2–12). The FY 2025 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan reported that the Pantex Plant—where all warhead assembly and disassembly activities take place—surpassed its FY 2023 dismantlement goals and increased its staffing to support its FY 2024 commitments. It also reportedly completed the dismantlement of all remaining W84 warheads that had previously been in the queue—a process that took approximately 15 years from start to finish for the entire stockpile of 400 warheads (Kristensen 2010; US Department of Energy 2024a, 2–14).
https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-01/united-states-nuclear-weapons-2025/
