Author Topic: Making PJM all wind and solar would cost over $2.4 trillion in battery backup  (Read 153 times)

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Offline rangerrebew

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Making PJM all wind and solar would cost over $2.4 trillion in battery backup
By
David Wojick
|
July 12th, 2025
 
I keep reading how big batteries are all it takes to make wind and solar reliable as the sole grid electricity source. The reality is that making wind and solar work at all requires a fantastic amount of battery backup, far more than is possible.

Below is an example using the PJM grid. PJM is America’s biggest grid operator, with a territory covering the Mid-Atlantic and points west. Their territory includes the Washington, DC metro area, where all the federal bigwigs live, making it a good place to start. I also live there.

We are quantifying a fantasy, so let’s keep it very simple. In fact, the basic question is why hasn’t PJM done this simple analysis? They do a lot of sophisticated grid modeling. Or maybe they have done this crucial assessment, but it is a secret, which is even worse.

Consider a single day in a typical peak demand summer heatwave. The heatwave is due to a stagnant high-pressure system called a Bermuda high, so there is not enough wind to generate usable wind power, no matter how much generating capacity is available.

https://www.cfact.org/2025/07/12/making-pjm-all-wind-and-solar-would-cost-over-2-4-trillion-in-battery-backup/
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Offline DefiantMassRINO

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Going 100% solar/wind/battery is economic, military, and societal suicide.

Fossil fuels work better than many other sources of energy because they are economical, efficient stores of energy.

Any cost estimates are bound to go up because costs rarely stagnate or decrease.

Liberals can't do math and don't understand economics.  They do most things based upon 'feelings'.

Money spent on 'decarbonization' nonsense would have been better invested in upgrading America's energy infrastructure and researching alternate or future technologies, such as using thorium to power nuclear reactors.

Wind/solar/battery have a niche in America's energy mix, but only make economic sense in isolated locations off the main grid.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2025, 02:36:52 pm by DefiantMassRINO »
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Offline roamer_1

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Again, I will reiterate... The only way solar works is in a distributed model.

If individual homes had solar capability, and storage capability, then solar is a boon and a balm - Acting as a buffer for grid services, buying unused energy, and making each home resilient in the face of grid outage.

the problem is in the idea of centralized solar in industrial park formation with huge battery facilities - That whole thing is never going to work.

BUT thousands of small systems sending unused power into the grid can stabilize whole regions, allowing generating capacity burden to be spent where it is needed.

And of course, stored power and unreliable (but still often viable) solar become invaluable resources during an outage, as demonstrated by grid-tied properties in the outskirts that are fitted with solar and batteries... These areas are notorious for outage, and such properties as these switch back and forth (some even automatically) with barely a flinch.

One of my friends is one of these, right at the end of the line up the north fork. two winters ago he lost power for eight days when a transformer blew, and due to weather and road conditions (winter), it took a while for replacement. He has battery capacity, and solar generation capacity, and a big jenny for when all else fails. Had he not those things, he'd have been forced down to town at a considerable expense, if he could get there at all (a life threatening possibility)...

However, he endured because he was ready for it.

And that should be a reasonable lesson for everyone.

Offline DefiantMassRINO

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Does he have a wood or pellet stove for heat?  Many up my way burn wood to save money on heat (vs oil and gas) and as a failsafe when Jack Frost wreaks havoc during the Winter.

In the 1970s, people got whacked by higher home heating oil prices, so they switched to natural gas. 

Ironically, in the early 1980s there was a natural gas shortage in Boston during Winter due to some LNG tankers being delayed by weather.

After that, many people started burning wood as a backup and complement to using oil and gas. 

Now, people are getting whacked with higher natural gas heat bills and high electrcity bills due to the constrained supply of affordable energy because of the Global Climate Change nitwits' opposition to natural gas pipelines, natural gas midstream processing facilities, fossil fuel generating plants, nuclear power plants, and long-distance electricity transmission lines.

The New England Clean Energy Connect has yet to go online due to oppostion by trust fund NIMBY environmentalists in Maine.

Cape Wind (off Martha's Vineyard is state waters) is still a twinkle in Deval Patrick's and Charlie Baker's eyes due NIMBY environmental opposition and unfavorable economics.

Vineyard Wind (off Nantucket in Federal waters) has managed to pollute regional waters before even generating its first kilowatt of power.  It's still being built, and GE Vernova just paid a $10 million settlement to Nantucket for last Summer's wind blade malfunction.

Now that costs for renewable power project costs are showing up in their electricity bills, people have figured out the wind and solar are far more expensive than fossil fuels and nuclear energy. 

It's been made worse by coal, gas, and nuclear generating capacity being shuddered without adding generating capacity from reliable sources.

So, the economic forces of supply and demand are walloping electricity customers and natural gas heat customers because there is insufficient available, reliable, affordable supply.

Kermit the Frog was right.  It's not easy, or affordable, being Green ... and stupid.



One of my friends is one of these, right at the end of the line up the north fork. two winters ago he lost power for eight days when a transformer blew, and due to weather and road conditions (winter), it took a while for replacement. He has battery capacity, and solar generation capacity, and a big jenny for when all else fails. Had he not those things, he'd have been forced down to town at a considerable expense, if he could get there at all (a life threatening possibility)...

However, he endured because he was ready for it.

« Last Edit: July 15, 2025, 05:17:27 pm by DefiantMassRINO »
"Political correctness is a doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it’s entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." - Alan Simpson, Frontline Video Interview

Offline berdie

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I'm having a hard time understanding why solar, wind and traditional can't all be used.  :shrug:

Offline DefiantMassRINO

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Because it is blasphemy against the orthodoxy and narrative of Global Climate Change.

For the Chinese Communist Party's plan to work, the United States cannot have reliable, affordable energy infrastucture to power competitive domestic manufacturing and AI.  Complete de-carbonization of the West is necessary for Chi-com global dominance.

America can't build Patriot Missiles if there is no electricity to the factory.  No electricity, no AI.

For AI, the nerds have to secure their own dedicated, reliable, affordable sources of electricity generation because they can no longer rely on the public electricity grid to power their data centers.  I suspect they'll sell surplus power to the ISO's or other businesses for a profit.

This is why America can't have good long-term private sector capital investment projects.  Just ask the owners of pipelines that were never allowed to be completed by the Government and the Courts.


I'm having a hard time understanding why solar, wind and traditional can't all be used.  :shrug:
« Last Edit: July 15, 2025, 05:27:07 pm by DefiantMassRINO »
"Political correctness is a doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it’s entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." - Alan Simpson, Frontline Video Interview

Offline roamer_1

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Does he have a wood or pellet stove for heat?  Many up my way burn wood to save money on heat (vs oil and gas) and as a failsafe when Jack Frost wreaks havoc during the Winter.


Well of course he does, as do I. It would be reasonable around here to say that everyone has wood fired stoves, if only for emergencies - though a large portion here still use it as their primary heat source, even in town.

Quote
Now, people are getting whacked with higher natural gas heat bills and high electrcity bills due to the constrained supply of affordable energy because of the Global Climate Change nitwits' opposition to natural gas pipelines, natural gas midstream processing facilities, fossil fuel generating plants, nuclear power plants, and long-distance electricity transmission lines.

The New England Clean Energy Connect has yet to go online due to oppostion by trust fund NIMBY environmentalists in Maine.

Cape Wind (off Martha's Vineyard is state waters) is still a twinkle in Deval Patrick's and Charlie Baker's eyes due NIMBY environmental opposition and unfavorable economics.

Vineyard Wind (off Nantucket in Federal waters) has managed to pollute regional waters before even generating its first kilowatt of power.  It's still being built, and GE Vernova just paid a $10 million settlement to Nantucket for last Summer's wind blade malfunction.

Now that costs for renewable power project costs are showing up in their electricity bills, people have figured out the wind and solar are far more expensive than fossil fuels and nuclear energy. 

It's been made worse by coal, gas, and nuclear generating capacity being shuddered without adding generating capacity from reliable sources.

So, the economic forces of supply and demand are walloping electricity customers and natural gas heat customers because there is insufficient available, reliable, affordable supply.

Kermit the Frog was right.  It's not easy, or affordable, being Green ... and stupid.

And all of those are industrial level projects which are doomed to fail.

I am talking about a distributed model, where each household takes care of its own solar and batteries. Where each household can be taken off-grid for several hours, if not days, without effect, or at least with a lessened effect.

A reasonable solar system would be around a 10-15k investment - no small thing - and will be an unreliable source.  Even here, where it is done, where many people live beyond the reach of power and gas lines, even here it is unreliable. No homestead gets through the winter without firing up the jenny.

But it is not wholly unreliable... These homesteads, for that investment, have batteries that will power them (sans heat/ac) for a few days, with no input... add in a reasonable amount of solar and that can be increased by many days. But invariably, it is cloudy here in the winter, and solar will inevitably give way to the jenny... but, run the jenny through a tank of gas, and your batts are charged back up and you can go another 3 days... And with the spring sunshine, all the way through summer and into the fall, the solar is king, and the jenny is put away.

Again, that is assuming wood heat and no AC... but that is a fair flavor of what folks here do.

Now... make that a hybrid system. one that is grid-tied, but still takes care of itself first if it can. It is independent at least as much as it is dependent, and probably more independent than not, with times of abundance where it is generating more than it needs.

That extra could be bought back by the grid and used for local load balancing, reducing it's needs, which leaves power elsewhere in the greater grid to go toward needs elsewhere.

And now that power is being treated as a commodity, with expensive vs inexpensive hours during the day, a solar/batt equipped house could function from solar/batt during the expensive hours of the day, and rely on the grid only during the inexpensive hours.

And as I said before, if there is an outage, he obvious inbuilt resilience of 3 days of battery power, not to mention a solar array, has its own value too.

And that is here, where we have a whole lot of cloud. Down south they can make due with half of what we would need in an array and batteries... In the desert southwest it is extremely viable. A big array down there can handle heat and AC too.

Solar/batt is a viable thing one house at a time.

Wind is utterly unreliable. There are a whole lot of folks that have wind generation up here, and it blows a lot up these canyons... but it is token power, and is always unreliable and very supplemental.