Settled Science Springs a Leak: Rivers Reveal the Carbon Cycle’s Dirty Secret
18 hours ago Charles Rotter
Abstract
Rivers and streams are an important pathway in the global carbon cycle, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from their water surfaces to the atmosphere1,2. Until now, CO2 and CH4 emitted from rivers were thought to be predominantly derived from recent (sub-decadal) biomass production and, thus, part of ecosystem respiration3,4,5,6. Here we combine new and published measurements to create a global database of the radiocarbon content of river dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), CO2 and CH4. Isotopic mass balance of our database suggests that 59 ± 17% of global river CO2 emissions are derived from old carbon (millennial or older), the release of which is linked to river catchment lithology and biome. This previously unrecognized release of old, pre-industrial-aged carbon to the atmosphere from long-term soil, sediment and geologic carbon stores through lateral hydrological routing equates to 1.2 ± 0.3 Pg C year−1, similar in magnitude to terrestrial net ecosystem exchange. A consequence of this flux is a greater than expected net loss of carbon from aged organic matter stores on land. This requires a reassessment of the fate of anthropogenic carbon in terrestrial systems and in global carbon cycle budgets and models.
The recent Nature study titled “Old carbon routed from land to the atmosphere by global river systems” is not only a rigorous piece of scientific work—it’s also a spectacular indictment of the so-called “settled science” of climate change. This 2025 paper is a flaming arrow into the heart of carbon cycle certainty, unearthing yet another inconvenient truth: over half of the CO2 emitted from rivers comes from carbon sources that are hundreds to thousands of years old—not from recent fossil fuel emissions or current biological activity.
Let that sink in. Climate models and carbon budgets, paraded as settled science by every bureaucrat, green politician, and eco-apocalyptic influencer on Earth, have been built on the foundational assumption that riverine CO2 is part of a contemporary, short-term biosphere loop. Turns out, they’ve been routing old ghosts through a new story.
According to the authors:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/06/16/settled-science-springs-a-leak-rivers-reveal-the-carbon-cycles-dirty-secret/
