Heavy Metal
Is an energy system transformation even possible?
Roger Pielke Jr.
May 21, 2025
All the copper ever mined — 700 million tonnes.
More than 7,000 years ago, humans first began mining copper. Since then, humans have mined more than 700 million tonnes. According to a fascinating study of the metals requirements of a net zero energy transition, the world will need to produce another 700 million tonnes of copper over the next 22 years.
~700 million tonnes of copper are implied by a net zero pathway over the next 22 years. That is equal to all of the copper ever mined over human history. Source: Geological Society of Finland.
The study, by Simon Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland, does the math of “what a complete phase out of fossil fuels would entail” for metals production.1 Here at THB we like it when people do the math — And, wow, the results are sobering about the massive scale of achieving net zero.
The Finnish study concludes:
The estimated total quantity of metals to manufacture one generation of renewable technology units to completely phase out fossil fuels (replace the existing system) is far larger than existing strategic thinking allows for. (p. 252)
What about the massive amounts of battery storage implied by a transition to large amounts of wind and solar electricity production?
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/heavy-metal
