Early Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
13 hours ago Kip Hansen
News Note by Kip Hansen — 25 April 2025
The early predictions for this coming 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season have come out.
From the group at CSU, we have this:
“Summary
We anticipate that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
As usual, the CSU Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team (TC-RAMS), the team built by the late-great Bill Gray, provides their reasoning and basis of their predictions below the summary on the page linked above.
There is additional data, including deeper historic data, in a StoryMap description of their forecast here: StoryMap
[What’s a StoryMap? See here.]
Important for hurricane season prediction is the state of El Niño/La Niña – here are the model predictions, provided by Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI):
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/04/25/early-atlantic-hurricane-season-predictions/
