The New York Times' claim that climate change threatens the global economy is false
By Anthony Watts.
In the recent New York Times (NYT) editorial "Climate Change Could Become a Global Economic Disaster," author David Gelles paints a picture of an impending economic collapse caused by the climate-induced destruction of the real estate market, insurance availability, and global GDP. Gelles' claims are speculative and based on a flawed analysis of climate change and a flawed understanding of economics and history. The evidence suggests that these apocalyptic scenarios are not only based on worst-casemodels that are completely disconnected from real-world empirical data, but also ignore humanity's long history of adaptation, innovation, and resilience in the face of change.
Let's start with the article's central claim: that global temperatures will "almost certainly" exceed 2°C and could even reach 3°C by the end of the century. This claim is heavily based on scenario-based climate models – not observations. As noted in Climate Realism, even the IPCC is now quietly acknowledging that its previously touted route for high emissions, RCP8.5, is becoming increasingly unlikely. And yet, this outdated scenario remains the go-to for media catastrophism. Real-world data show warming trends that are more in line with the lower forecasts, with no signs of the runaway feedback loops that media parrot breathlessly.
In addition, models are routinely retroactively adjusted and their predictions rarely match actual climate observations. As Roy Spencer, Ph.D., has pointed out, models overestimate warming compared to satellite data, a point that the NYT conveniently omits.
The NYT parrots an old favorite: that cities like Miami and Osaka will be flooded. The suggestion is that of a biblical flood, but actual tide gauges and satellite height measurements do not show an acceleration of sea level rise. Sea levels continue to rise at a modest, linear rate of about 3mm per year – consistent with trends observed since the 19th century, and certainly not something that improved flood prevention infrastructure can't handle.
https://www.climategate.nl/2025/04/de-bewering-van-de-new-york-times-dat-klimaatverandering-de-wereldeconomie-bedreigt-is-onjuist/
