‘Climate change may make it harder to spot submarines,’ new NATO study finds

[rangerrebew]

‘Climate change may make it harder to spot submarines,’ new NATO study finds – Claim ‘warmer oceans alter how sound travels underwater’

Last week, scholars Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli released a NATO Defense College paper on the impacts of climate change on submarine warfare. The former is a senior lecturer and NDC senior non-resident associate fellow, while the latter is a senior researcher in military technology and international security at ETH Zürich. Their research compared historical values on water temperature and salinity from 1970 to 1999 and simulated future values for 2070 to 2099. The report's authors concluded that "in most areas, the range at which submarines can be detected is shrinking."

By Marc Morano
March 30, 2025
9:52 pm

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/03/27/climate-change-may-make-it-harder-to-spot-submarines

 

Read the full piece on The Economist:

️ Driving the news: A new NATO study reveals that climate change could make it more difficult to detect submarines, as warmer oceans alter how sound travels underwater

• Submarine engines, once trackable by sonar over long distances, may become harder to detect due to changes in ocean temperature and salinity

 The context: Submarine detection relies heavily on acoustic signals, which are affected by the temperature, pressure, and salinity of seawater

• As climate change warms the oceans and disrupts their structure, these changes interfere with sonar performance—a key tool in naval surveillance and warfare

 Why it matters for the planet: The military implications of climate change highlight the complex and far-reaching impacts of global warming

• As oceans become more stratified and unpredictable, nations may need to adapt defence strategies and technologies, reinforcing the global security risks of climate inaction

https://www.climatedepot.com/2025/03/30/climate-change-may-make-it-harder-to-spot-submarines-new-nato-study-finds-claim-warmer-oceans-alter-how-sound-travels-underwater/

[rangerrebew]

This was a problem 50 years ago when I worked in the Naval Weather Service.  We had to monitor the ocean temps to look for those pockets.  So, this is nothing new, just more scare tactics.

[Smokin Joe]

This was a problem 50 years ago when I worked in the Naval Weather Service.  We had to monitor the ocean temps to look for those pockets.  So, this is nothing new, just more scare tactics.

Subs used to ride the currents in and out of the Mediterranean Sea during WWII, and being 'below the layer' was ideal. Masses of water with differing salinity and temperature have a boundary layer between them, a mixing zone, that reflects and refracts sound, just like the boundaries between different layers of rock do with shock waves induced for geophysical exploration on land.

...and if you look up at the sky some days, you will see the clouds shaped like ripple marks where two air masses are moving past one another (known to pilots and passengers as "turbulence").



Those mixing zones and interfaces complicate 'seeing' what is on the other side of the boundary, wherever or whatever it is.

[Cyber Liberty]

Back in the 90's The Economist was a pretty balanced magazine.  That changed dramatically since.