Are We at the End of American Maritime Hegemony?
China’s shipbuilding capacity is more than 200 times greater than ours.
by Francis P. Sempa
March 21, 2025, 11:30 PM
In an important article in Foreign Affairs, Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Eric Labs, a naval expert at the Congressional Budget Office, warn U.S. policymakers that America is suffering from a “ship gap” with the Chinese Navy in raw numbers of warships and merchant vessels, and a potentially catastrophic shipbuilding gap that could determine victory or defeat in a future war.
And while the U.S. maintains superiority in weapons, capabilities, size of ships, experienced officers, and better-trained crews, in a long war China’s massive shipbuilding advantage would enable it to more rapidly “expand or replace losses to its fleet that the United States simply could not match.” (RELATED: Generals Should Win Wars Before Declaring Victory)
Biddle and Labs compare the current gaps with the World War II struggle between the U.S. and Japan. “At the outset of that conflict,” the authors write, “it was the U.S. Navy that was less skilled and experienced than its counterpart,” but as the war progressed America’s superior shipbuilding capacity enabled it to “outbuild and overwhelm its enemy in a long war.” “The United States,” Biddle and Labs advise, “should look at China’s navy and see the terrifying potential of its former self.” And there is no time to lose.
China’s shipbuilding capacity is more than 200 times greater than ours. Wars, including wars at sea, never go as planned. In a long war with China in the western Pacific, the U.S. Navy would lose ships — perhaps a lot of ships.
https://spectator.org/are-we-at-the-end-of-american-maritime-hegemony/
