An Alarmingly Narrow House Majority
Byron York
It's a truism that it is extremely difficult to govern with a tiny majority in the House of Representatives. When there are no vacancies, there are 435 members; if everybody shows up, it takes a bare majority, 218 votes, to pass a bill. In practical terms, a majority party needs well over 218 seats to ensure it can win party-line votes. There will always be members who don't show up or take the other side, and the majority needs enough to win the vote even while losing a few on its own side.
Looking at the House in the last 20 years, the majority party had 233 seats in the Congress beginning in 2005; 233 in the next Congress; 257 beginning in 2009; 242 in the Congress after that; then 234 in the next; 247 in the next; 241 in the next; and 235 in the House beginning in 2019.
A 235-seat majority is pretty much the minimum for a party to govern comfortably. But after 2019, in the hand-to-hand combat of the Trump years, things began to get very, very close. In the House that began in 2021, Democrats had 222 votes. In 2023, Republicans had 222 votes. And now, in the House that has taken office in 2025, it's gotten even tighter. A lot tighter, if that is possible.
The party balance in the House is 218 Republicans to 215 Democrats, with two vacancies. Those two are Rep. Mike Waltz, who left to become President Donald Trump's national security adviser, and Rep. Matt Gaetz, who left ahead of an ethics investigation. Both are Republicans from Florida, where an election to replace them has been set for April 1. Both seats are expected to be held by the GOP.
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https://townhall.com/columnists/byronyork/2025/02/05/columnistsbyronyork20250204an-alarmingly-narrow-house-majority-n2651676
