Since December, astronomers have been carefully studying whether an asteroid between 130 and 300 feet long will impact the Earth in just under eight years. And the odds, overall, seem to be rising.
On Jan. 29, the chances of this asteroid (named 2024 YR4) striking our planet on Dec. 22, 2032, were 1.3 percent. Then they rose to 1.7 percent on Feb. 1, before dropping the next day to 1.4 percent.
Then on Thursday, they leaped to 2.3 percent, before slipping slightly to 2.2 percent on Friday. That’s a one-in-45 chance of an impact (but also a 44-in-45 chance of a miss).
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/08/science/asteroid-yr4-2024-impact-odds.html
