Michael E. Mann’s Forecast Fiasco
15 hours ago Charles Rotter
Well, the 2024 hurricane season has come to an end and we can now close out Michael E. Mann’s forecast—delivering a prediction so spectacularly off-target it could make a dartboard blush. As we previously noted in our post “Michael E. Mann, the Black Knight,” he reminds us of the Monty Python character who loses every limb in battle yet stubbornly insists, “’Tis but a scratch!” This time, Mann’s sword of speculative forecasts landed on a projection of 33 named storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season—”the highest count ever predicted,” as he proudly declared back in April.
Well, the season has closed, and reality had other plans. Instead of the hurricane Armageddon Mann foresaw, we ended up with a grand total of 18 named storms—a far cry from the 33 he predicted. For perspective, that 18 is just barely above the historical average of 14. And for Mann, whose forecast has been roundly criticized as one of the most inaccurate in recent memory, it’s more like a monument to overconfidence.
Steve Milloy of JunkScience summed it up aptly by calling Mann’s prediction “the wrongest count ever predicted.” While that might sound harsh, it’s tough to argue with the numbers. Mann didn’t just miss the bullseye—he missed the entire dartboard and hit the pub wall.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/12/01/michael-e-manns-forecast-fiasco/
