Let's hope that the stats are wrong!!
Want to know who will win the US election? Take a look at the stock marketThe polls, as much as they can be trusted, show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump running neck and neck in what many observers believe could be the closest election in decades.
Even so, the performance of US stocks has an uncanny track record of predicting the outcome of presidential elections.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 – which tracks the performance of 500 of the largest firms listed in the US – has pointed to the winner in 20 out of 24 elections, according to an analysis by financial services company LPL Financial.
When US stocks were up during the three months before election day, the incumbent party kept the White House on 12 out of 15 occasions. And the party in power lost eight out of the last nine times that the market was in negative territory leading up to the vote.
It is not a bad track record as forecasting models go................
S&P 500 returns in the 3 months prior to US presidential elections
When combined, market performance has “predicted” 20 of the last 24 elections. Since 1928, in the three months leading up to an election whenever the S&P 500 index was positive the incumbent party remained in control of the White House 80 percent of the time. In contrast, when the market was lower during the three months before an election, the incumbent party lost the election eight of the last nine times.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/10/24/want-to-know-who-will-win-the-us-election-take-a-look-at-the-stock-market
