Author Topic: Atlas Poll backgound Imformation (Well Worth a Read)  (Read 451 times)

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Offline catfish1957

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Atlas Poll backgound Imformation (Well Worth a Read)
« on: October 21, 2024, 10:40:33 am »
One of the really interesting aspects of polling, is not what the actual numbers that are stated daily on RCP.  Much more interesting, telling, and accuracy driven is how the pollsters conduct the stats in preperation.  There are at least half of the well known national polls that are obvioulsy inducing biases into the demographics to come to a conclusion in the guise of pure randomness.

Some of the these polls don't even allow you to see their data, without a subscription.  Others skate across it, wildly claiming their demographics are solid.  Others, are push polls, and those by design should be held in suspect.  The fact that most of the national polls underestimated Trump's numbers in '16 in '20 by normally of the tune of 2-5% bias?  I hope you get the picture.

During election season, I parse through 1000's of pages of these kind of documents, and I have a pretty good idea, which are more accuarately feeling the pulse of the electorate.  The only two right now that I have a feeling is trully trying to nail this is Raz, and AtlasIntel.  Atlas, does into significant detail and does a  great job in disclosing their aspects demographic analysis, and the best ways it serves predicting and trending the candiates. 

Their supporting documentaton, below, does a nice job, and is a good reference of how to do this right.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Atlas-Poll-US-Elections-NATIONAL-Oct-17-2024.pdf
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Re: Atlas Poll backgound Imformation (Well Worth a Read)
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2024, 10:47:16 am »
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Re: Atlas Poll backgound Imformation (Well Worth a Read)
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2024, 11:06:44 am »
I thought their spread looked pretty good. Maybe a little high on the suburbanite demo but otherwise pretty balanced. I think it's a fairly decent representation of things at the current moment.
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