Weather Attribution Alchemy
A new THB series takes a close look at extreme weather event attribution, Part 1
Roger Pielke Jr.
Oct 07, 2024
In the aftermath of many high profile extreme weather events we see headlines like the following:
Climate change made US and Mexico heatwave 35 times more likely — BBC
Study Finds Climate Change Doubled Likelihood of Recent European Floods — NYT
Severe Amazon Drought was Made 30 Times More Likely by Climate Change — Bloomberg
For those who closely follow climate science and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such headlines can be difficult to make sense of because neither the IPCC nor the underlying scientific literature comes anywhere close to making such strong and certain claims of attribution.
How then might we understand such high profile claims?
I’ll try to answer this question in this new THB series — Weather Attribution Alchemy. Extreme weather event attribution has long been among the topics most requested by THB readers. In this first post in the series, I introduce some key concepts that will be important as the series evolves over the coming weeks and months. I’m counting on your engagement throughout the series.
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/weather-attribution-alchemy
