Contested election: How a close race with dueling polls creates risk of surprises, delays, and doubt

[mystery-ak]

Contested election: How a close race with dueling polls creates risk of surprises, delays, and doubts
By
W. James Antle III
September 27, 2024 5:00 am
.

Before President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid in July, there was a broad consensus about where the 2024 race for the White House was headed. Former President Donald Trump was going to win and Biden was about to lose, with the only remaining questions involving the margin of victory and how many downballot Democrats the incumbent was going to drag down in defeat with him.

Even then, there were still occasional reputable public polls that showed Biden with a fighting chance. An NPR-Marist survey released after the fateful June 27 debate actually showed the soon-to-be defenestrated Democrat leading by 2 percentage points nationally. That was an outlier, but Fox News and NBC News polls that came out around the same time gave Trump leads of 1 and 2 points, respectively, well within the margin of error.

Other polls, including Democratic internals, showed Biden not only losing but jeopardizing his party’s hold on Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Jersey while losing the popular vote nationally. That is a bigger collapse of the blue wall that Hillary Clinton experienced in 2016, when Trump was elected the first time. Biden still maintains he could have won, most recently in an appearance on The View, but few Democrats believed that. But he bowed to pressure from his own party and dropped out weeks before the Democratic National Convention.

more
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/magazine-features/3167133/contested-election-how-a-close-race-with-dueling-polls-creates-risk-of-surprises-delays-and-doubts/

[Smokin Joe]

I'm still gobsmacked that this could even be "close".

[Free Vulcan]

Can't believe they forgot to add cheating to that list.

[catfish1957]

I am going to go out on a limb, and say the Pennsylvania is going to be "Frankened" if it is close.

i.e keep doing recounts, and rechecks until you win.

[Fishrrman]

Smokin' Joe puffs:
"I'm still gobsmacked that this could even be "close"."

That's not because of the candidates, Joe.

It's because of the country -- the electorate.

That the "two commies" could be this close to winning the presidency -- and who almost certainly will win the popular vote, even if they lose in the Electoral College -- tells us that Antonio Gramsci and the others of the Frankfurt School were correct in their assumptions, and that their disciples and followers have all-but won here, today.

Did you ever see the wonderful film "Little Big Man"?
Recall the scene after the battle of Little Big Horn, in which Jack Crabbe (Dustin Hoffman) is reunited with chief Old Lodge Skins (Chief Dan George).

Old Lodge Skins says to young Jack,
"We won today. We won't win tomorrow."

Now, substitute Mr. Trump for Chief Dan George.
That's how things will look on November 6, even if Mr. Trump overcomes the obstacles and breaks through to a second victory.

I wish I could be more optimistic about the future.
But I call 'em as I see 'em.
And that's what I see comin' down the line from here.