The Surface Navy and the Long War
By Ralph G. Francisco
September 2024 Proceedings Vol. 150/9/1,459
Nobody Asked Me, But . . .
When grappling with an opponent straining at their utmost, a choke is not instantaneous—but it still hurts. Commerce raiding predates the Peloponnesian Wars, but in a future conflict it may help throttle Beijing’s true center of gravity: their control of 1.4 billion people. China relies on uninterrupted overseas trade and stable economic growth and it simply cannot afford a long war. Allied surface forces can and should establish sea control—just not where one might expect.
Goliath Feeds from Afar
In 2020, China consumed over 14 million barrels of oil per day (BPD) in peace time. About 600,000 BPD came overland through Russian pipelines, with Kazakhstan accounting for an additional 400,000 BPD. In 2019, China produced a mere 3.83 million BPD domestically. Approximately 62 percent of China’s oil must come by sea, beyond their missile umbrella, under the nose of the U.S. 5th Fleet.
The Department of Defense (DoD) estimates China’s 600-million-barrel strategic petroleum reserve represents a 90 day-supply. Beijing can offset deficits with coal and natural gas, but their war machine runs on oil. China also suffers from chronic food insecurity, feeding one fifth of the world’s population with only seven percent of its arable land. As a net food importer, disruption to American, Brazilian, or Australian grain imports could be disastrous.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/september/surface-navy-and-long-war
