House outlook murky with Harris atop ticket
by Mike Lillis - 08/18/24 6:00 AM ET
The ascension of Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket has bolstered the party’s chances of keeping control of the White House for another four years, but the effect on House races is much less clear.
Since replacing President Biden as the Democrats’ likely nominee, the vice president has delivered a bolt of energy to a deflated base, sparking a boost in grassroots enthusiasm, a spike in campaign fundraising and fresh hopes that Democrats can keep former President Trump from a second term.
But if the roster change has shifted the electoral college and other state-level races towards Democrats, the impact is much more murky in the House, where gerrymandering is routine, polling is less reliable and outcomes are complicated by the penchant of some voters to split the ticket to bring a balance of power to Washington — a trend that’s forecast to be more pronounced this year than in cycles of the recent past.
The result, according to leading election handicappers, is that the House remains up for grabs as Democrats head to their convention in Chicago this week.
“Since Harris got in, there’s been very little public House polling on individual races, but the House generic ballot polling has been fairly static for a while in polling averages, with either Democrats or Republicans up a tiny amount,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election analysis group at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said in an email.
Kondik is predicting that whichever party wins the White House will also carry the House, but because the presidential race is too close to call at this point, so is the lower chamber.
“I’d basically just say it’s been tied.”
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https://thehill.com/homenews/4832150-kamala-harris-house-races-election-2024/
