NYT Taking Sledgehammer to Biden Campaign Pledges & Prospects
Ed Morrissey
Gee, maybe Joe Biden had a point about Democrat 'elites' pushing him out of the race. Beege alluded to the whiplash that New York Times readers must now be experiencing as their columnists and editors go back and forth on Biden's prospects. Like Beege, The Clash's most famous song has been running through my head since the debate, and it's clearly haunting the Gray Lady.
However, the Times escalated its prophecies of doom today in two key analyses. First off, Bill Clinton adviser Doug Sosnik offered an extensive analysis of the Electoral College scenarios that appear in play, and he's not at all optimistic about Biden's chances. In fact, Sosnik only sees one scenario in which Biden can get to 270, and that's improbable at best:
As I did for Times Opinion in April, I’ve drawn on my years as a Democratic strategist to look at polling, advertising and campaign spending in the key states in this election. As several maps illustrate below, I’ve never seen such a grim Electoral College landscape for Mr. Biden: He not only faces losing battleground states he won in 2020, he is also at risk of losing traditional Democratic states like Minnesota and New Hampshire, which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama carried. If current trends continue, Mr. Trump could rack up one of the most decisive presidential victories since 2008. ...
Due to his worsening political situation, Mr. Biden now has only one narrow path to winning 270 electoral votes and the presidency in November, a more dire situation than he faced when I looked at his potential paths in April and a reality his campaign acknowledged in a strategy memo on Thursday.
Coincidentally or not, this analysis appeared just hours after Biden declared during his presser that he would only consider withdrawing if Democrats proved he couldn't win. Sosnik doesn't go quite that far, but he comes very close. The only path to 270 for Biden is to hold the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while also keeping New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia. Let's look at the RCP aggregate polling data in those blue-wall states, and where they were at this time in 2020:
Wisconsin: Trump 47.2, Biden 44.6 (2020: Biden up 6.5)
Michigan: Trump 46.0/45.4 (2020: Biden up 7.7)
Pennsylvania: Trump 48.3/43.5 (2020: Biden up 7.0)
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https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/07/12/nyt-taking-sledgehammer-to-biden-campaign-pledges-and-prospects-n3791714
