The numbers show voters don’t want an eight-year presidency
By
Michael Barone
June 19, 2024 4:37 pm
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Four weeks after Donald Trump’s conviction in a much-criticized Manhattan prosecution and a week before the first and earliest-ever scheduled post-primary presidential debate, it’s a good time to look at how these two unusually elderly and oft-reviled candidates stand in the contest.
The big news is that there isn’t much big news. Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls was 0.9 percentage points when the verdict was handed down and 0.8 points as this is written. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third candidates included, Trump’s lead over Biden increased from 2.2 points to 2.4.
In other words, no perceptible change. As Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini posts, contrary to interest, “Very real possibility that there will be very little of substance to talk about polling wise before Election Day.”
But there is a sharp change in poll numbers from the 2016 and 2020 cycles. During those races, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton for all but a couple of days and Biden for every single day in the 12 months before the election. On June 20 of those years, Clinton’s lead was 5.9 points and Biden’s 9.5 points, respectively.
Trump’s prospects this year look even better when you look at the polling in target states. RCP polling averages have him ahead by around 5 points in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — states he lost narrowly in 2020. If you add their 33 electoral votes to the 235 electoral votes in states Trump carried that year, you get 268 — just short of the necessary 270.
At the moment, these numbers look baked in. Biden hasn’t led in any poll in Arizona since April 2023, in Nevada since October 2023, and in Georgia since November 2023.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/3052241/voters-dont-want-eight-year-presidency/
