Ranking the 11 Competitive Senate Races

[mystery-ak]

Ranking the 11 Competitive Senate Races
Plus two possible shockers.
By Jeffrey H. Anderson
October 20, 2022

As we head into the homestretch of the 2022 midterms, let’s see whether the press will pick up on an issue that they’ve been studiously ignoring: the effect of COVID policies. This will be the first time voters will have a chance to register their opinions in a federal election about COVID-related mask mandates, vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and out-of-control spending since the debate heated up in 2021. Those issues—and the attendant issue of parents discovering what the public schools are actually teaching their children—were massive factors in Glenn Youngkin’s victory in last year’s Virginia gubernatorial election. Just one year earlier, remember, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Virginia by 10 percentage points.

It’s obvious that inflation (higher of late than at any time since Biden was half his current age) is a product of COVID lockdowns that disrupted supply chains and employment, COVID-related blowout deficit spending (financed in part by the Federal Reserve’s purchase of government bonds, a process through which—in the words of the former ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, Jeff Sessions—the Fed “effectively prints money”), and the Left’s unprovoked war on fossil fuels. If inflation—along with a nearly 30 percent increase in violent crime in urban areas—is indeed the biggest issue in this election, then COVID policies are implicitly on the ballot as a root cause of that inflation.

With fewer than three weeks to go, 11 Senate races look to be genuinely competitive. Unless another race beyond these 11 produces a shocking result, whichever party wins a majority (six) of these races will win control of the Senate:

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[Hoodat]

1) Arizona(D) (toss-up)
2) Pennsylvania(R) (toss-up)
3) Georgia(D) (slight Democratic advantage)
4) New Hampshire(D) (Advantage: Democrats)
5) Nevada(D) (Advantage: Republicans)
6) Colorado(D) (Advantage: Democrats)
7) Ohio(R) (Advantage: Republicans)
8) Iowa(R) (Advantage: Republicans)
9) North Carolina(R) (Advantage: Republicans)
10) Wisconsin(R) (Advantage: Republicans)
11) Washington(D) (Advantage: Democrats)

Six of these seats are currently held by Democrats. Five by Republicans.  Republicans would have to win six of these races to force Mitt Romney to switch parties - seven to take control of the Senate.

Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona mark six, seven, and eight.