The Will to Fight
By Brian Michael Jenkins
March 28, 2022(AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
As late as November 2021, military analysts in the West estimated that invading Russian forces could overrun the capital of Ukraine in a matter of days. Over a month has passed since the invasion began — Kyiv stands. This is just the latest example of pre-war miscalculation, a flaw to which the U.S. is hardly immune.
Net assessments try to predict the outcomes of theoretical wars between different pairs of adversaries. They focus on the military capabilities and technologies — essentially manpower and weapons. Other factors are theoretically considered but harder to quantify. These include motivation; morale; the will to fight; the role of military and political leadership; and the individual decisions made by thousands of soldiers or an entire population.
As a 2018 RAND study noted, “[a]rguably, will to fight is the single most important factor in war.” Despite this, “the integration of will to fight concepts into military…assessments is glaringly sparse.” A collapse of morale can bring down an army faster than a virus. Stubborn courage can be equally infectious.
These miscalculations may reflect continued reliance on measuring manpower and materiel, which do often prevail in military contests. The will to fight and a nation’s determination to persevere resist the kind of measurement pragmatic managers prefer, so they tend to be set aside.
https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2022/03/28/the_will_to_fight_824144.html
