Dr. James Holmes: The Naval Diplomat
Antarctica: The Next Geopolitical Hotspot?
By
James Holmes
Published
December 26, 2021
Antarctica
An LC-130 Skibird from the New York Air National Guard is jacked up on the frozen ice shelf of Pegasus field Jan. 16 after aircrew discovered a landing gear issue. The maintenance crews of the 109th Airlift Wing do not have hangars to work out of while deployed to Antarctica for Operation DEEP FREEZE and must work in the elements and handle unique challenges nearly every day. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Master Sgt. Kevin Phillips/Released)
A Chilean friend asks whether the craze for building “icebreakers or polar ships” will continue and whether it’s coming to the Antarctic. My rambling answer: probably so, to a degree. But I doubt polar operations will take on a martial character in Antarctic waters the way they have in the Arctic.
In fact, the best way to espy the future of Antarctica is to compare it to the Arctic basin’s present.
For one thing, the claimants to sovereign territory in Antarctica do not exactly make up a murderer’s row. NATO and Russia glare at each other across the Arctic, and their commercial and political interests often clash. Contrast that with Antarctica, where Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, and Great Britain have lodged claims to parcels of ground. Now, much of the continent does remain unclaimed, principally Marie Byrd Land. Whether Antarctica becomes a cockpit for geopolitical competition probably depends on whether it harbors natural riches that can be harvested at a reasonable cost, advancing economic weal for the harvester. Resources have a way of fueling competition, whether it’s the 49ers rushing pell-mell to California in the mid-19th century to pan for gold, or Asian powers vying for jurisdiction over fish and undersea oil and gas in the China seas today.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/12/antarctica-the-next-geopolitical-hotspot/
