The Battle Is Far From Over
Democrats will not win again with a referendum on whether the country likes Donald Trump. They will have to present an alternative.
By Conrad Black
November 16, 2020
The tense and critical period of recounting and challenging the presidential election results in several states has brought to a climax the great struggle between the Trump phenomenon and the different constituent elements of the post-Reagan bipartisan political establishment.
As it stands now, fewer than 40,000 votes switched from the Democratic nominee Joe Biden to Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona would give Trump the election 279 electoral votes to Biden’s 259. If Biden retained Pennsylvania, and only 25,000 votes shifted from Biden to Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, the Electoral College would be tied 269 each, and Trump would be reelected by the House of Representatives where each state delegation casts a single vote; Alaska’s congressman has equal weight to California’s 53. The Senate, in that scenario, elects the vice president, and the Republican majority would reelect Vice President Mike Pence.
In 2016, if about 40,000 votes had switched from Trump to Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she would have won. On the other hand, even with that switch, if just 16,000 voters in Nevada and New Hampshire had moved from Clinton to Trump he would still have won with 270 electoral votes to Clinton’s 268.
There have been endless references over the oast two weeks to the decision of the 2000 presidential election by only 537 votes in the state of Florida in favor of George W. Bush over Al Gore. In 1960, John F. Kennedy won Illinois by 9,000 votes out of 4.76 million cast, won Missouri also by 9,000 votes out of nearly 2 million cast in that state, and had a combined plurality in Nevada and New Mexico of only 5,000 votes out of 420,000 votes counted. If only 12,000 well-placed votes in those four states had switched from Kennedy to Richard Nixon, Nixon would have been elected.
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