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Offline mystery-ak

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Three races that will decide Senate control
« on: July 24, 2020, 01:36:46 pm »
Three races that will decide Senate control
by Naomi Lim, Political Reporter |
 | July 24, 2020 12:01 AM

Control of the Senate is up for grabs this November, and the electoral map presents plum opportunities for both Democrats and Republicans to make gains, some receiving less attention than others.

Democrats only need three to four seats to flip the Senate's balance of power in the fall, presuming they hold onto Alabama. And that isn't likely as Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is poised to lose to former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, only three years after arriving in Washington.

The problem for Republicans is they're defending more ground, with 23 seats up for consideration this cycle compared to Democrats' 12. They also face the prospect of a "wave" election where President Trump's unpopularity could tank the rest of the GOP ticket. The president trails presumptive 2020 Democratic standard-bearer Joe Biden by an average of 8.7 percentage points in the polls, according to RealClearPolitics.

In traditional battleground states, such as Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina, Democrats are on the offensive.

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/three-races-that-will-decide-senate-control
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Offline EdinVA

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2020, 01:56:47 pm »
I don't think Warner is as safe as he thinks he is.....
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Online catfish1957

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2020, 02:13:52 pm »
If Biden wins, and we lose the senate.  It's all over. 
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Offline Applewood

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2020, 06:06:18 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on July 24, 2020, 02:13:52 pm
If Biden wins, and we lose the senate.  It's all over.

I see both houses ending up under Democrat control.  So even if Trump wins and even if he was so inclined to keep his promises, he won't be able to do squat.  I see him vetoing a lot of chit coming from congress and having his vetoes overridden. 

So much effort and money have been spent on re-electing Trump, not much has been left for the Republicans running for congress this year.  I guess many of the Republicans think they can be victorious hanging onto Trump's coattails.  But I don't believe his popularity necessarily translates into victory for them in either house of congress.
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Online catfish1957

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2020, 06:20:55 pm »
Quote from: Applewood on July 24, 2020, 06:06:18 pm
I see both houses ending up under Democrat control.  So even if Trump wins and even if he was so inclined to keep his promises, he won't be able to do squat.  I see him vetoing a lot of chit coming from congress and having his vetoes overridden. 

So much effort and money have been spent on re-electing Trump, not much has been left for the Republicans running for congress this year.  I guess many of the Republicans think they can be victorious hanging onto Trump's coattails.  But I don't believe his popularity necessarily translates into victory for them in either house of congress.

Looking at the RCP data, this thing looks like it is going down to the wire.

Some of the data is flawed...  like only one PPP poll favoring the dim in MT. 

From my vantage point?

AL a GOP gain
AZ a dim gain
MT a GOP gain
NC maybe a dim gain
CO a dim gain
ME- maybe a dim gain.
IA-  Who knows

Based dims winning IA, that will be a 50-50 senate split
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Offline Idiot

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2020, 06:21:38 pm »
Quote from: Applewood on July 24, 2020, 06:06:18 pm
I see both houses ending up under Democrat control.  So even if Trump wins and even if he was so inclined to keep his promises, he won't be able to do squat.  I see him vetoing a lot of chit coming from congress and having his vetoes overridden. 

So much effort and money have been spent on re-electing Trump, not much has been left for the Republicans running for congress this year.  I guess many of the Republicans think they can be victorious hanging onto Trump's coattails.  But I don't believe his popularity necessarily translates into victory for them in either house of congress.
My worst case thinking has the House and Senate plus the presidency going to the dems.  I suspect they'll change the rules of the Senate and pass whatever the heck they want by majority vote.  If this is the case, our country is officially done.  My industry (oil & gas), will get the same treatment to what Obama did to the coal industry.  It will be brutal.....  I foresee a scorched earth approach where they go after guns, Christians, etc..... 

The way our country has forsaken God, I can see Him lifting His hand of protection from us.  Sadly....we'll deserve what we get.  **nononono*

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Offline EdinVA

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2020, 06:25:13 pm »
Quote from: Applewood on July 24, 2020, 06:06:18 pm
I see both houses ending up under Democrat control.  So even if Trump wins and even if he was so inclined to keep his promises, he won't be able to do squat.  I see him vetoing a lot of chit coming from congress and having his vetoes overridden. 

So much effort and money have been spent on re-electing Trump, not much has been left for the Republicans running for congress this year.  I guess many of the Republicans think they can be victorious hanging onto Trump's coattails.  But I don't believe his popularity necessarily translates into victory for them in either house of congress.

I am not so sure... I do not believe that all of this shutdown, rioting crap has been as well received as the media lets on.  Anyone I talk with in the liberal DC area is not real happy... we will see in November when the citizens have their say.
I don't put any stock in polls either..
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Online catfish1957

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2020, 06:25:40 pm »
Quote from: mrpotatohead on July 24, 2020, 06:21:38 pm
My worst case thinking has the House and Senate plus the presidency going to the dems.  I suspect they'll change the rules of the Senate and pass whatever the heck they want by majority vote.  If this is the case, our country is officially done.  My industry (oil & gas), will get the same treatment to what Obama did to the coal industry.  It will be brutal.....  I foresee a scorched earth approach where they go after guns, Christians, etc..... 

The way our country has forsaken God, I can see Him lifting His hand of protection from us.  Sadly....we'll deserve what we get.  **nononono*

Busting the fillibuster law will basically be a constitutionally administrative  coup.  IMO fighting and bloodshed have be waged for less than this. 
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Offline berdie

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2020, 07:12:10 pm »
I can see the elimination of straight ticket voting in Texas being a problem. I fear it will cause people to be in a tizzy and they won't know how to vote.

Is this the norm in other states?
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Online Smokin Joe

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2020, 11:47:00 am »
Quote from: catfish1957 on July 24, 2020, 02:13:52 pm
If Biden wins, and we lose the senate.  It's all over.
Nope. It'll just be getting started.
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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2020, 10:15:22 pm »
Gardner in Colorado (now "Washington east of the Rockies) and McSally in Arizona are almost certain losses.

Collins in Maine is iffy.

Tuberville has a fightin' chance in Alabama...
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Re: Three races that will decide Senate control
« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2020, 10:25:59 pm »
I disagree with the premise.  34 races will decide the Senate control.
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