One 2020 presidential forecast says Trump faces historic defeat due to terrible economy

[catfish1957]

Reference Market watch.  And to the 100%, 100% of the time Trump faction, don't shoot the messenger.  As read in the article, same forecast model had Trump winning prior to the pandemic.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-2020-presidential-forecast-says-trump-faces-historic-defeat-due-to-terrible-economy-2020-05-20?mod=home-page

<snipit>

President Donald Trump could suffer a historic defeat in the fall if the economy doesn’t sharply recover from the coronavirus pandemic and the disease lingers, according to a model that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections.

Oxford Economics predicts Trump would lose to Democrat Joe Biden by a margin of 65% to 35%, using a model based on the pioneering political-forecasting work of Yale economist Ray Fair.

How bad is that? Howard Taft was the last president running for reelection to win fewer than 35% of the vote, when he finished third in 1912 behind Woodrow Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.

The Oxford model primarily relies on key economic barometers such as inflation, the unemployment rate and inflation-adjusted disposable income to generate its forecast.

The jobless rate has soared to almost 20% unofficially from just 3.5% several months ago, and it’s unlikely to drop below 10% before the election, Oxford Economics predicts. Incomes have also taken a big whack.

Right before the pandemic, the Oxford model showed Trump handily winning reelection with 55% of the vote. But the coronavirus has changed all that.

Oxford predicts the states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina would all flip from Republican in 2016 to Democrat in 2020, giving Biden 328 Electoral College votes to just 210 for Trump.

[Idiot]

Reference Market watch.  And to the 100%, 100% of the time Trump faction, don't shoot the messenger.  As read in the article, same forecast model had Trump winning prior to the pandemic.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-2020-presidential-forecast-says-trump-faces-historic-defeat-due-to-terrible-economy-2020-05-20?mod=home-page

<snipit>

President Donald Trump could suffer a historic defeat in the fall if the economy doesn’t sharply recover from the coronavirus pandemic and the disease lingers, according to a model that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections.

Oxford Economics predicts Trump would lose to Democrat Joe Biden by a margin of 65% to 35%, using a model based on the pioneering political-forecasting work of Yale economist Ray Fair.

How bad is that? Howard Taft was the last president running for reelection to win fewer than 35% of the vote, when he finished third in 1912 behind Woodrow Wilson and Theodore Roosevelt.

The Oxford model primarily relies on key economic barometers such as inflation, the unemployment rate and inflation-adjusted disposable income to generate its forecast.

The jobless rate has soared to almost 20% unofficially from just 3.5% several months ago, and it’s unlikely to drop below 10% before the election, Oxford Economics predicts. Incomes have also taken a big whack.

Right before the pandemic, the Oxford model showed Trump handily winning reelection with 55% of the vote. But the coronavirus has changed all that.

Oxford predicts the states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina would all flip from Republican in 2016 to Democrat in 2020, giving Biden 328 Electoral College votes to just 210 for Trump.

I always thought the virus was Trump's fault.
 

[Applewood]

I don't know.  I've been listening to and reading some of Biden's campaign promises (essentially a return to the Obama era, plus an affinity for the radical socialist programs like the Green Deal), and I really don't see too many people embracing any of it.  I'm guessing most people will hold their noses and vote for Trump just to not go back to the slavery days of the Obama reign.  I just hope Republicans get off their butts and defend their majority in the senate because if Trump wins, but both houses end up in Democrat control, we just might end up back in the dark ages again. 

[240B]

The headline made me chuckle a little.
"One" forecast calls for Trump's disastrous defeat? Really?
There are dozens if not hundreds of forecasts like this.
Just like with Hillary. It is the same thing all over again.

[mystery-ak]

This is my fear also..people vote with their pocketbooks no matter what the circumstances  and the constant drumbeat that covid19 was all Trump's fault..This and the push to vote by mail or email just enhances voter fraud as if it wasn't bad enough already.

[truth_seeker]

Trump will accuse democrats of desiring a lousy economy, loss of freedom from lockdowns, weak national security, of being anti-American, of trying to damage his presidency by illegal means, etc.

He will very believably warn the dems are all about socialism, which is NOT what made America great.

He will offer MAGA like just a few months before the China virus arrived.

He will promise a warp speed overall recovery.

 

 

[Ghost Bear]

That was the entire point of the shutdown: trash the economy in order to ruin Pres. Trump's chances of re-election. It's no accident that all of the states remaining closed (or trying to remain closed) are run by Democrat governors.

[240B]

It's no accident that all of the states remaining closed (or trying to remain closed) are run by Democrat governors.

That has NOT gone unnoticed by Democrats and Republicans.

[Fishrrman]

I've said it before and I'll repeat:
This one's gonna be close.
Perhaps even as close as Bush II's win in 2000...