First Released Antibody Study Shows Coronavirus Infection Rate Could Be 50 To 80 Times More Widespre

[mystery-ak]

First Released Antibody Study Shows Coronavirus Infection Rate Could Be 50 To 80 Times More Widespread Than Previously Believed


Scott Morefield
Reporter
April 17, 2020 2:53 PM ET


Stanford University research teams released data Friday from the nation’s first widespread community test for COVID-19 antibodies, and the results show the virus’s spread could be far wider than previously believed.

The study, conducted by two research teams who tested 3,300 Santa Clara County, California volunteers, “found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies — a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count,” ABC News reported.

Alex Berenson
✔
@AlexBerenson

The @stanford antibody testing is out - it estimates ~3% of people in Santa Clara County (CA) have been infected and recovered, 50-plus times the estimate of confirmed active cases. More evidence #SARSCoV2 is far more widespread and thus less dangerous than expected.

more
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/17/stanford-antibody-study-coronavirus-infection-rate-widespread/

[jmyrlefuller]

I'm growing more skeptical by the day regarding these tests and their efficacy.

[txradioguy]

This test if it’s the one I’m thinking of also shows a lower that predicted/expected/announced death numbers from the virus.

[jafo2010]

There is a discrepancy between this test and the one in Boston, with 37% having tested positive.  I do not buy this test at all, and I would never trust anything from Stanford!!!  Like trusting the Clinton Foundation to take care of the people of Haiti.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

This test if it’s the one I’m thinking of also shows a lower that predicted/expected/announced death numbers from the virus.

I think, since the regular tests were limited to people showing signs of virus, the negative tests are lower than an actual sample of America, but the positive test to death ratio is inflated because the patients were already very sick when tested.  This study indicates many of us are infected, but not succumbing to the symptoms. 

[Smokin Joe]

I think, since the regular tests were limited to people showing signs of virus, the negative tests are lower than an actual sample of America, but the positive test to death ratio is inflated because the patients were already very sick when tested.  This study indicates many of us are infected, but not succumbing to the symptoms.

Nice summary. 

We have no idea of the number of asymptomatic and low level symptomatic infections are out there and how many of those have already recovered.

[libertybele]

Nice summary. 

We have no idea of the number of asymptomatic and low level symptomatic infections are out there and how many of those have already recovered.

IMHO I still think that there is more than one strain of this floating around; one strain that affects people very mildly and another strain that affects people very severely.

[Smokin Joe]

IMHO I still think that there is more than one strain of this floating around; one strain that affects people very mildly and another strain that affects people very severely.

That could well be. Viruses mutate, too.

[jmyrlefuller]

IMHO I still think that there is more than one strain of this floating around; one strain that affects people very mildly and another strain that affects people very severely.

That would also explain the discrepancy between the East Coast and West Coast infection rates. The East Coast is believed to have gotten it from Italy and Iran, for the most part, while the West Coast was more likely to get it from red China.

[Hoodat]

IMHO I still think that there is more than one strain of this floating around; one strain that affects people very mildly and another strain that affects people very severely.

Eight strains of coronavirus afflicting the world

[libertybele]

That would also explain the discrepancy between the East Coast and West Coast infection rates. The East Coast is believed to have gotten it from Italy and Iran, for the most part, while the West Coast was more likely to get it from red China.

The big question is, is IF there is more than one strain, would one build up immunity against the more severe strain if they have a milder strain? 

[Smokin Joe]

Eight strains of coronavirus afflicting the world

From that article:

At present, say the scientists, there is still “strong mixing of samples across Europe, suggesting that the virus has continued to move across borders in the last 3-5 weeks.” Once the lockdown measures begin to show more effect, say the investigators, the outcome will be clusters of transmission of each type or strain of the virus in different countries.

In the US, however, the viral samples from opposite sides of the country are almost identical. For instance, in the state of Washington, the virus has been introduced two times, and perhaps more. The origin is thought to either be China or Europe. The effect is visible as two separate chains of viral spread.

However, in California and several other states, the virus is seen to be probably spreading within the community rather than being introduced from outside, say the scientists. This is because many of the cases on the West Coast are very similar to a Washington strain, which in turn is only three mutations away from the first strain of the virus to be found, say the investigators.

That sorta shoots down the theory that the NY strains may be more dangerous than the CA strains, though there may be some seemingly minor mutation in the NY strain that is more lethal. (or, in a tinfoil hat moment? Maybe the Chinese were thinking of invading the West Coast and didn't want to deal with the nastier form?)
Other underlying factors may apply.

[The_Reader_David]

We do have one population in which we have complete testing data (for active infection, not residual antibodies):  the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt.  Among them 60% of those infected were asymptomatic.  No info in the source I read on how many of the other 40% had only such minor symptoms that they'd be passed over as a mere flu or bad cold had they not been in a circumstance with universal testing. 

Seeing that out in the general population we're only testing people who are either front-line medical staff or who have come down with at least two of the big three symptoms (fever, dry cough, difficulty breathing), it's almost certain that there are a lot more people who have had or now have the virus than are showing up in our statistics.

[aligncare]

From that article:
That sorta shoots down the theory that the NY strains may be more dangerous than the CA strains, though there may be some seemingly minor mutation in the NY strain that is more lethal. (or, in a tinfoil hat moment? Maybe the Chinese were thinking of invading the West Coast and didn't want to deal with the nastier form?)
Other underlying factors may apply.

MIT studied death rates in NYC public service employees. They found the death rate was statistically higher in MTA (transit) employees than, fire, police, EMT, etc. They concluded, based on the math that the spike was due to reducing the number of trains and buses in service, forcing denser ridership, closer proximity and more prolonged exposure. Cuomo, The Science Guy.

[Smokin Joe]

MIT studied death rates in NYC public service employees. They found the death rate was statistically higher in MTA (transit) employees than, fire, police, EMT, etc. They concluded, based on the math that the spike was due to reducing the number of trains and buses in service, forcing denser ridership, closer proximity and more prolonged exposure. Cuomo, The Science Guy.

I'll wager that compared to the Fire, EMS, and police, heck even the garbage guys, that the MTA employees tended to be in worse physical condition, and as a rule, carried more extra weight than the rest.

[aligncare]

I'll wager that compared to the Fire, EMS, and police, heck even the garbage guys, that the MTA employees tended to be in worse physical condition, and as a rule, carried more extra weight than the rest.

Good point. My wife takes the subway to her job at a nursing home and she is freaked out by covid. She wears PPE including a face shield. Her patient is always coughing in her face. She always showers the moment she gets home.

[truth_seeker]

There is a discrepancy between this test and the one in Boston, with 37% having tested positive.  I do not buy this test at all, and I would never trust anything from Stanford!!!  Like trusting the Clinton Foundation to take care of the people of Haiti.

That will certainly set this site apart, for genuine intellectual prowess.

(Did you know Stanford is home to Victor Davis Hanson, Thomas Sowell, the Hoover Institute?) And is routinely rated among the top Universities in America?

BTW what is your own Alma Mater?

[Hoodat]

(Did you know Stanford is home to Victor Davis Hanson, Thomas Sowell, the Hoover Institute?) And is routinely rated among the top Universities in America?

Their chemical engineering department is almost as good as Georgia Tech.

[truth_seeker]

Their chemical engineering department is almost as good as Georgia Tech.

Great. Seriously.

I went to a Calif. State Univ., in Business/Finance

Years later it turned out that state school had earned an excellent reputation fromcompanies.

Students will get from college, in part what they put into the experience.